Tuesday, April 29, 2014

Forecast: Kiesza's "Hideaway" Trending Toward Top 5


Canadian superstar and fast rising worldwide success, Kiesza, is riding high on this week's building tally. The singer's debut track, "Hideaway" is climbing faster than expected with huge gains in radio airplay and overall votes cast. Today alone, the track has racked up 26 points (up over 766% from Monday's total). That pattern suggests that the track could wind up within the top 5 (and possibly become my chart's 9th ever #1 debut). It's picked up 34 plays through 4 days, and with 3 more days left this week, "Hideaway" is looking at a total between 90 and 105 points by Friday night. The lower end would be enough for a top 5 debut, and anything higher than 95 should be able to knock Lorde's "Team" from the summit.

This huge surge comes courtesy of the track's bow at #1 in the United Kingdom just last week. That week it sold a huge 136,000 copies (the 3rd highest opening frame for any track of 2014 in that territory). This past week, it fell to #2 while still selling over 100,000 more copies. In the United States, it has started to receive some attention from dance radio DJs and several hard core dance music fans.

The track, which was reportedly written, recorded and mixed within a short 3 hour timespan, has generated positive reviews from the general public with some calling it "a clear '90s throwback" and others noting its "eerie, spine tickling beat". That indicates it should be able to hold well with the few dozen voters that contribute their input every week and help balance my chart.

On the other hand, Araina Grande's latest studio single, "Problem (feat. Iggy Azalea)", should get off to a pleasant start this week. It will easily start above the #38 debut that Grande's last single, "The Way", was able to scoop up, but through day 2, the track has started to taper off. I initially expected something along the lines of "top 15 debut" but now it appears that the track will start below the top 10 and possibly below the top 20. That's perfectly fine, but that leaves the song's future way up in the air. Several tracks that have debuted fairly high on the chart in the past few months (excluding top 10 debuts) have come crashing down in weeks that followed up their opening. For example, Sia's recent solo track "Chandelier" smashed into the top 50 at #11 just 6 weeks ago. The following week, it recorded the largest fall in chart history, by collapsing to #42 (a 31 position decrease). Lana Del Rey's "West Coast" started off at #28 last week (a fairly moderate opening), and slid 10 positions to #38 on this week's chart. OneRepublic's "Love Runs Out" opened at #14 last week as well, but was able to hold at that position again this week (while still dropping in overall points by 4%). That track record is somewhat questionable, so "Problem (feat. Iggy Azalea)" may take several weeks to stabilize, though it is likely to eventually ride into the top 10 at some point during its run.

There aren't likely to be any other strong debuts this week, so I thought I should give you a sneak peek at how Lorde and Katy Perry are doing on this week's chart.

Lorde's "Team" and Katy Perry's "Dark Horse" should both be able to complete the top 3 with scores similar to last week -- both are likely to finish right behind Kiesza's "Hideway", which should have a lock on #1.

Come back later in the week for the chart highlights and and more features!

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