It's really hard to say at this point. Lana Del Rey has only had one other charting single since the chart's inception in April 2012. "Born to Die" would have made the list, but by the time my chart started it was no longer within my top 50. Instead, "Summertime Sadness" reached #3 in the summer of 2013 fueled by the release of the track's official dance remix created by Cedric Gervais. Since hardcore Del Rey fans aren't normally particularly fond of this remix, I will note that plays stemmed from both the original and the remix (I enjoyed both).
Del Rey did perform the track live for the first time this weekend at Coachella, but it was hard to tell if the track is dance oriented or more on the safe-Lana-slow side. It's kind of a wait and see deal. Either way, I'm predicting a top 30 (maybe top 20) debut on the CDS Music Chart Hot 50 next week. The reason? The buzz. "West Coast" has had loads of buzz and hype surrounding its random and unexpected premiere. That will give voters lots of chances at voting it as the "Song of the Week" and that will easily be the driving force for its 1st week. If it drops out in week 2, then that means it didn't connect. But at this point, it's almost guaranteed to take a slot on the upcoming Hot 50 chart.
On Billboard: that's a different story. I am not affiliated with Billboard in any way, shape, or form but I thought I should give you an update. Everything is important. If digital sales are strong, but other components (radio/streams) aren't then it might reach the top 30 or top 40 in week #1. Keep in mind, starting at #1 on iTunes at the start of the week and ending the week at #30 isn't going to be enough to start high on the Hot 100. If the music video also drops this week, (and sales are high) then "West Coast" could shape out nicely. Just remember: never stop downloading, streaming and listening. Those are the 3 key verbs; the recipe for success on the Hot 100. Just as a note: it's possible that the track won't be released to iTunes this week (because it debuts at a funky time) but I'm guessing it will because Spotify has already listed the track as part of Lana's discography.
As a reminder: "West Coast" is slated to premiere between 10 AM to 1 PM in the United Kingdom. That translates to 2 AM to 5 AM for the western United States and 5 AM to 8 AM.
You can enter my "West Coast" giveaway by clicking here! Just make sure you follow the instructions and follow me to enter! I will be gifting 5 copies to random lucky fans in the United States!
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