Friday, April 11, 2014

Forecast: Katy Perry, Disclosure, Lorde For #1?


There's a lot of competition in this week for #1 and just overall, so I wanted to provide a forecast for what I am expecting to happen at the end of this week. As a side note, I was going to focus on the premiere of Lana Del Rey's latest single "West Coast" in this post, but if you haven't heard already, that track won't premiere until Monday, April 14th between 2 AM - 5 AM PST.

Last week's #1 single, "Empire" by Shakira, is headed for a 10%+ drop this week. That translates to a final total wedged between 79 and 83 plays by the end of tracking on Friday night. That's down 10 to 15% from last week's total, which likely won't be enough to wind up at #1 for a 5th non-conseutive week. Even worse, several songs in the top 10 are headed for notable gains this week (5-15%).  Currently, the only thing that could keep it alive is the fact that several songs that aren't eligible for inclusion on the chart (mainly "Heavy Metal Lover") are doing well on the chart's building tally. These songs aren't eligible because they are over 2 years old (no song can start a chart run if it has already been publicly released for over 104 weeks prior to charting. A song that has already charted but is now over 2 years old can re-enter the chart up to 52 weeks from it's last charting frame). Every time one of these tracks plays, they eat into spin time. That means that they could potentially be eating into spin time for other competitors. Despite this, at this point, it's almost guaranteed that "Empire" will no longer rule the penthouse when this week's final numbers come through.

Please note: all plays garnered by in-eligible tracks are erased from record and don't count toward anything.

So which songs are contenders for #1 this week you ask? Let's dig into that right about now

Katy Perry's "Dark Horse (feat. Juicy J)" could be the front runner. Last week, the track notched 80 plays even, elevating 5-4 on the tally. Now it might be able to climb about 9% according to the current trend. That would put in between the 86-88 weekly spin range. That should be enough power to topple Shakira's currently leading "Empire".

Lorde's 2nd charting single "Team", which rose 3-2 last week, could also have a chance at summiting the CDS Music Chart Hot 50. "Team" could end this week with a increase between 2 and 5%, which would put it in a very close range with "Horse" for the crowning position. Previously, Lorde soared as high as #8 with "Royals" (which topped many international charts). The run of "Royals" was cut very short because it was over promoted on radio, causing me to quickly lose interest. If "Team" hits #1, Lorde will score her first ever #1 single.

Disclosure's breakthrough hit "Latch (feat. Sam Smith)" blasted onto the Hot 50 just a few weeks ago at #46. Last week, it climbed an enormous 24 positions to rank at #22 in its 2nd week on the tally. This week, "Latch" had a huge start through the beginning of the week. On Saturday (April 5th; day 1 of tracking for this week), the track ranked #6. By Sunday, the track had climbed to #2. It held at #2 for the building week through Tuesday. On Wednesday, the track ranked at #4 for the week so far (all combined scores from Saturday through Wednesday). On Thursday the track landed at #8, indicating a huge decline from the start of the week through the penultimate day of tracking. By the end of Friday though, the story could be completely different. I am predicting a turn around by I'm not sure if it this turn around will put it within reach of #1 this week (maybe next week?).

In sad news for Lady Gaga fans, "G.U.Y" is continuing to scale the charts but it won't finish within #1 striking range this week. Sorry guys! It might reach the top 5 though (it ranked #8 through the latest frame). Come back for more updates and a new ASK CDS post all about the international/stateside statistics and fate for "G.U.Y" this weekend. I will also hopefully have my Roseland review up soon (sorry for the delays!).

Come back for the highlights and the chart!

No comments :

Post a Comment

Animated Social Gadget - Blogger And Wordpress Tips