Summer Songs Preview

With April in rearview mirror and May already in full swing, the question arises yet again. Who and what will dominate the charts during the Summer of 2014? With new tracks gushing onto iTunes by the boatload, the competition this year will be extreme - more so than ever before. During the summer season people tend to pay more attention to music and what's considered "hot" at the moment. With radio stations playing a even more selective set of tracks, Summer is the season that produces the longest running #1s (perhaps not on the CDS Music Chart Hot 50 per say, but for sure on charts worldwide). So I've decide to catch you up on the pop happenings and give you my picks for what will easily control this summer.

As a note before we get started, I have decided that I will bump up the start of the Summer season to the June 12th chart. That means that data that goes into deciding CDS Music Chart's Song of the Summer (and other runner-ups) will begin with songs being played from May 31st onward (the June 12th chart reflects data from songs played during the tracking week beginning on May 31st and ending on June 6th). Previously, the final June issue (this year is June 26th) marked the start of the season. I have not yet decided, but I'm thinking that the season will end with points collected through the September 25th issue (the same as the past two years).

Kiesza - "Hideaway"

With a huge #1 debut and a likely second frame at #1 coming, Kiesza's "Hideaway" is a clear frontrunner at this point. As the track continues to dominate the United Kingdom, it's starting to pick up ground in other foreign markets and here in the United States it's finally getting some attention. While it's possible that the track could fizzle by the start of the Summer Songs tracking period, if it plays out like other large openers, the track could close within the top 5 for the season. I'm expecting it to hold fairly well through at least the start of season, and either way it should be almost guaranteed for a strong final number by the end of the year. This one should remain on the CDS Music Chart playlist for quite a while.

Odds of Top 20 Finish
Billboard: 2%
CDS Music Chart: 85%
UK: 20%

Eurovision 2014 Winner - "TBD"

The winner of the elaborate annual European contest has been a strong performer ever since my chart launched back in 2012. That year's winner (Loreen's "Euphoria") came from Sweden and eventually reached #1 on the CDS Music Chart for 3 consecutive weeks. It ended with 53 weeks on the chart and became the #15 best performing track on the CDS Music Chart at the end of the year. At one point, it was even the #10 best performing track (though it has since slipped with the impact of newer releases). It ranked #18 on the Summer 2012 chart. Last year's winner (Emmelie De Forest's "Only Teardrops") reached #1 for 2 consecutive weeks and eventually became the #6 best performing track of Summer 2013. It reached #17 on the year end chart.

All I can tell you is: if the winner isn't English or it it's about a piece of cake, it won't chart. Other non-winning tracks have had a hard time on the chart (only one has cracked the top 50) though if "Undo" by Sanna Nielsen doesn't win, it could still chart.  "Not Alone" also has a chance even if it doesn't win. Whatever wins would rival "Hideaway", the strongest contender going into the season.

Click here to see my picks for who should win the 2014 installment of the Eurovision Song Contest.

Odds of Top 20 Finish
Billboard: 0%
CDS Music Chart: 85%
UK: 70%

Coldplay - "A Sky Full of Stars"
It's been a while since Coldplay had an album era, but the British band is back in full swing as they prepare for the release of their 6th studio album, "Ghost Stories". Partnering with Target in the United States, Coldplay has unveiled promotions, exclusive videos and even 3 exclusive tracks through the retailer. Now their new song "A Sky Full of Stars" is taking the world by storm. Produced by the breakout Swedish DJ Avicii, the track puts a twist on the modern stylings of the band. Complete with a danceable and thumping backbeat, "A Sky Full of Stars" will likely be dominating the worldwide music scene throughout the next couple of months. It reached #1 in over 80 countries upon release and ended 101 consecutive day reign of Pharrell's "Happy" as the best selling single worldwide (currently the #1 best seller for a 4th day worldwide; #1 in 19 countries currently).

Odds of Top 20 Finish
Billboard: 35%
CDS Music Chart: 70%
UK: 10%

Ariana Grande - "Problem (feat. Iggy Azalea)"

The latest track from the teen pop sensation is currently the #1 best selling track in the United States, and was forecasted to end with well over 400,000 paid downloads after it's first week. While we won't know the final numbers until tomorrow, this track is surging at radio, on YouTube and has yet to slip from the top 2 on the United States iTunes since its release 10 days ago (#1 streak briefly interrupted by Coldplay's "A Sky Full of Stars"; see above). It's a safe bet to say that you'll hear this one non-stop starting in a few weeks.


Odds of Top 20 Finish
Billboard: 90%
CDS Music Chart: 55%
UK: 50%

Calvin Harris - "Summer"

I hope this doesn't become the summer hit because I really dislike his voice, but "Summer" is already starting to make 'waves' in the United States after splashing onto the UK Singles Chart at #1. I mean it is called "Summer", a huge positive. Another thing that could keep it going? It's a dance track. Throughout the summer season, dance tracks are regarded as the main fare, so this combination of positive may just work out the right way for Calvin Harris. The only thing that will NOT help it: it's very quickly put together music video.


Odds of Top 20 Finish
Billboard: 45%
CDS Music Chart: 5%
UK: 30%

Katy Tiz - "The Big Bang"

I decided to include this track as possibility for two reasons. First, Katy Tiz's "Red Cup" was last year's Song of the Summer, and the 4th best performing track of the entire year. Second, "The Big Bang" has started to grow considerably in the United States since its release in March. It currently ranks within the top 30 at US overall radio and has been able to receive major support from iheartradio stations as well as other Clear Media Channels. Additionally, many other websites have considered it a candidate, prompting me to include it in this list.

Odds of Top 20 Finish
Billboard: 50%
CDS Music Chart: 30%
UK: Unreleased/0%

Other Candidates:
-Katy Perry - "Birthday"

Odds of Top 20 Finish
Billboard: 60%
CDS Music Chart: 15%
UK: 15%

-Iggy Azalea - "Fancy (feat. Charli XCX)"

Odds of Top 20 Finish
Billboard: 60%
CDS Music Chart: 60%
UK: 20%

-Usher - "Good Kisser"

Odds of Top 20 Finish
Billboard: 20%
CDS Music Chart: 5%
UK: 15%

-Clean Bandit - "Rather Be (feat. Jess Glynne)"

Odds of Top 20 Finish
Billboard: 10%
CDS Music Chart: 60%
UK: 50%

-Ed Sheeran - "Sing"

Odds of Top 20 Finish
Billboard: 65%
CDS Music Chart: 10%
UK: 70%

Summary: This year surpassingly does NOT have a clear summer hit(s) like last year did ("Blurred Lines" and "Get Lucky"). A don't bother to include "Happy" because it will be over by the time Summer roles around. How do I know? How can I be so sure? It's been #1 for 10 weeks. No track has spent more than 16 weeks at the penthouse in the United States. There's almost no way "Happy" could even last that long, let alone continue to post huge numbers afterwards. The track that DID spend 16 weeks at #1 (Mariah Carey and Boyz II Men's "One Sweet Day") collapsed right after it's 4 month reign ended, so you'd be wacko to think that "Happy" could continue to post high positions through the end of Summer.

It's frustrating to not be able to pick a clear winner. My guess right now is that the Eurovision winner will dominate in the UK (and possibly on CDS Music), Ariana Grande will be an early summer winner in the US and "Hideaway" will be a big hit on the CDS Music Chart Hot 50. Coldplay's "A Sky Full of Stars" will do well on all 3 charts.

What do you think will be a huge hit this summer?