Forecast Update: "A+D" Headed For Top 20 Bow

As noted in the first forecast for this week's chart, Kiesza's breakthrough single "Hideaway" was looking at a debut within the top 5. Two days later, it looks like the bouncing club anthem may in fact debut at #1; the 9th song to do so in history. On Tuesday, the track picked up a solid 26 spins for a 4 day total of 34 votes. On Wednesday, the track racked up a still solid 23 points (a 11.5% decrease), bringing its 5 day total to 57 points. Halfway through Thursday, the track has scooped 14 plays, indicating that the track will finish the day with at least 26 spins (likely 28). That would put its 6 day total at around 85. On Friday, the track should be able to score at least another 20 points, putting a finish for the track between 105 and 110. That's a guaranteed lock for #1, though it's hard to say how this track will play out. #1 debuts have been sort of a mixed bag on the chart. It could start strong and quickly dwindle like Shakira's "Empire" (4 frames atop the list), or play out like Lady Gaga's "Applause". The latter is CDS Music Chart's 2nd most successful single in history; it spent a record breaking 11 non consecutive frames at the top of the list.

That puts Lorde's former 3 week leader, "Team", on pace for a second place finish. It should be able to maintain most of its 98 point haul from last week, but as noted just above, that won't be enough to hang on to the top slot for a 4th consecutive frame. Disclosure and Katy Perry should be battling for the #3 slot this week, but all signs are pointing toward "Dark Horse" narrowly taking the slot. John Legend's "All of Me" could reach the top 5 (due to notable strides), though I'm expecting the track to finish in 6th place, a single position gain. "G.U.Y" is more likely to rank at #5 this week, in front of "All of Me" (this race will be close).

Last week's greatest gainer (and lone new top 10 entry), "First Things First" by Neon Trees, will likely not finish within the top 10 this week. After it catapulted 35-9 with the release of its parent album, the track is on pace to close out this week with a drop into the 15-20 rank range.

Lower on the list, Vita Chambers should be able to barely pull of a top 20 opening with her latest track "A+D". This track (her 4th single) arrived to retailers just yesterday, the 5th day of the 7 day tracking week. All of her other previous entries opened earlier within the week, and were thus able to score top 10 openings. While the debut of "A+D" on this week's Hot 50 would end Vita's streak of consecutive top 10 openings, it should be able to post a large enough increase in points to rank within the top 10 next week. I'm expecting a debut right on the fringe of the top 20, which is a fairly strong start for a song impacting the list over midway through the week.

Araina Grande's latest track, "Problem (feat. Iggy Azalea)", is currently expected to debut within the top 30, though a top 20 debut is highly unlikely. Either way, the new track will be the highest start for both Iggy and Ariana. Iggy's latest single, "Fancy" opened at #46, while Araina's "The Way" started off at #38 back in May of 2013.

Come back for the chart and more exclusive features including a post all about the iHeartRadio Music Awards (which will be aired LIVE at 8 PM on NBC).