Tuesday, November 5, 2013

Forecast: ARTPOP Leaks Headed For Top 20

When the album ARTPOP by Lady Gaga leaked in HQ this past Saturday morning (start of the tracking period), several songs stood out as possible charting entries. We announced on Twitter earlier that the following tracks were likely headed for the top 20 this week: "Donatella", "MANiCURE", "Mary Jane Holland" and "G.U.Y. (Girl Under You)".

As the week is over half way through, now is an appropriate time to report the current standings and how things should play out.

Song
Spins So Far
Projected Spins Through the Rest of the Week
Estimated Rank
Spins Per Day Average
Rating on CDS MUSIC
REVIEW
Trend
Mary Jane Holland
55
91
#5
13
10/10
MANiCURE
46
80
#7
11.5
9.5/10
Donatella
45
75
#9
11
10/10
G.U.Y.
38
64
#17
8
10/10
Gypsy
28
40
#27
6.5
8.5/10

Based on this data, "Mary Jane Holland" should debut in the top 10, even if it starts to slow down a bit. "MANiCURE" should also open in the top 10. "Donatella" is already starting to slow down a bit, and is behind "MANiCURE" already. Therefore it is a toss up and might reach the top 10 for the week. "G.U.Y." has built quickly from its first day and should have a strong second week but will ultimately fail to reach the top 10 this week. "Gypsy" had the most potential when it first opened on Saturday but since then, it has slid considerably and will likely wind up not making the top 30 of the week.

Meanwhile "Do What U Want (feat. R. Kelly)" should return to #1 this week. "Applause" will likely rebound to #2 and "Venus" should tumble to #3. "Sexxx Dreams" is on pace to finish right below the top 10 (again). "The Monster (feat. Rihanna)" by Eminem and "What If?" by Vita Chambers are gunning for #4.

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