Ask CDS: "How Will ARTPOP Debut On Billboard?"

I have no affiliation to Billboard, though I do occasionally look at their pretty snazzy website. When I read their ARTPOP review, I felt like they're thoughts were pretty similar to the ones displayed in my ARTPOP review (that was published before theirs). That was one of the only times I have actually agreed with them. When I read their prediction for ARTPOP (based on Nielsen Soundscan), I was shocked. There is no way that it could sell just 300,000 to 350,000 copies.

There are a lot of factors put into how Nielsen and Billboard predict, but they were proved way wrong today. No I'm not talking about the fact that some unverified sources are saying "ARTPOP sold 4 million copies worldwide" or "ARTPOP sold 100,000 copies in the US alone" (though I will admit the second claim is pretty believable). I am talking about the fact that ARTPOP is selling out everywhere. Walmart has no copies in stock online, and almost all of their stores are out of stock according to desperate fans. While some Target stores forgot to put the album on the shelf because most albums come out on Tuesday, most locations are also reporting selling out. H&M has a few copies of the album at 175 of their stores in the United States (supposedly foil), and they won't be replenished. Even Best Buy (I hate them!) is selling out and it is unclear when these retailers will get more (probably tomorrow). Fans and various workers from the stores are stating that the limited foil copies are very rare and will likely no longer be available after week 1 ends. @behindhisburqa on twitter reported that he checked his local Target multiple times and stated that by lunchtime, only 14 copies of the album remained on the shelf. The album is #1 in over 70 counties worldwide and in the top 10 in over 90 countries total.

I got a few questions from fellow tweeters when I called out Billboard for underestimating the album's first week sales:

@TheShadeThrower asked: "CDS Chart what do you expect ARTPOP's first week US sales to be?"

I replied: "Billboard says about 350,000 copies. I say maybe 400,000 to 500,000 though hopefully more!"

In response, @sharadpatel_UA and @TheShadeThrower asked me more questions and @sharadpatel_UA voiced his opinion about the possible threat of Eminem's album holding well in week #2:

@sharadpatel_UA said: "Watch it (ARTPOP) sell around 300,000 to 325,000 and Eminem beat Gaga. R.I.P. Gaga"

I replied: "Big Album releases tend to drop 60-80% by week 2. That's a little more than 300,000 copies for Eminem in week 2"

@TheShadeThrower  said: "Naa. Eminen won't do that much in week 2. Somewhere between 100,000 and 200,000 copies.

I disagree with this. Eminem's album sales will drop but not by that much. Sorry if that crushes your hopes.

I went back to a local Target and noticed about 40 copies left of ARTPOP on the shelf at 6 pm. It looked like they had sold 10 to 20 copies since they placed the album on the shelf at around 9 am. They all appeared to be the limited foil version of the album, although I didn't check each one individually. I had been the first person to buy the album from this particular store because they hadn't put the album on the shelf nor did they even know it was supposed to come out today. Maybe my store received more than it was supposed to? (I don't know).

Several other tweeters contacted me (@Ashhruff) about similar predictions for the album. He (@Ashhruff) said that in Malaysia there were no more foil copies. I wanted to buy him the album and mail it to him, but the postage was too expensive.

This led me to believe that there could be a shortage of the album overall. In other words not just the foil edition copies. I dismissed this idea because of the fact that "Born This Way" sold lots of copies in week 1 when it was released and Lady Gaga didn't have a shortage then. I also had evidence that many copies were left at my store. Maybe she over ordered?

Either way I fully expect ARTPOP to beat the prediction that Nielsen and Billboard came up with. I expect a total north of 450,000 copies based on all of the data I have collected. It will likely sell another 150 thousand copies (-66%) in week 2, to rank #1 for a second week, if it sells about 450,000 this week. That would put a two week total of about 600,000 on the board. It should do some good business in week 3 because of Black Friday but it won't be #1 (One Direction debuts that week). That could be another 100,000 copies. Ultimately it will end 2013 in the US likely just shy of a million copies.

I also received questions about my favorite ARTPOP tracks! You can view my review of ARTPOP and my entire ranking of all of the album's songs by clicking the link here!