Wednesday, August 28, 2013

Forecast: Gaga Headed For 3rd Week Atop List

These past few weeks have been starting to take a similar shape to those that occurred in September/October 2012. In both years, there was a song that had a big jump to #1. Their runs at #1 were cut short because of other songs debuting at the top. I am referring to these songs specifically:

-"Your Body" by Christina Aguilera
-"Diamonds (Shahaf Moran Remix)" by Rihanna
-Thinking About You (feat. Ayah Marar)" by Calvin Harris
-"Applause" by Lady Gaga

In 2012, Christina Aguilera leaped 7-1 on the week of September 27th (11 months and 1 day from today).  The following week, Rihanna's track had the Hot Shot Debut at #2. Although Aguilera landed above it that week, "Your Body" passed the top position to "Diamonds (Shahaf Moran Remix)" the next week. Rihanna's song ended up ruling for 7 consecutive weeks (at the time a record). This is similar to how "Thinking About You (feat. Ayah Marar)" jumped 12-1 on August 15th this year, before passing the crown to Lady Gaga's "Applause". So far "Applause" has spent two weeks atop the list. The point that I am trying to get across is that "Applause" could end up ruling for upwards of two months (there is currently an 8 week record).

Back to this week's forecast. Lady Gaga's "Applause" is starting to even out its airplay total after a big debut and a big dip. This week it should smooth out to the mid 90s range. Our prediction was about 97 plays through 7 days. Through 5 days it has had a spin count of 79 which means that the song is above the estimated average by about 2-3 plays a day. The song needs at least 9 plays each on Thursday and Friday to get to 97 weekly spins. It is highly likely. Based on the success of this week so far, we have a new estimate of 93 for next week. This will likely keep the song at #1 for a 4th week, unless Eminem's "Berzerk" or Vita Chamber's "Masquerade" have high rises.

Tuesday, August 27, 2013

Chart Highlights: Vita Chambers Hits High With "Masquerade"; Steep Decline for Gaga

After opening in the #1 position last week, Lady Gaga's "Applause" again rules the penthouse. Despite spending another week on top, the song only racks 109 spins, which is still amazing, but is down sharply from last week's total (-31.45%). "Applause" becomes the first song to ever tally over 100 spins in two weeks each. With this information, the new airplay calculation for its third week is the mid to high 90s (97) that would be off about 10% from this week's total (-11.01%). That should still be enough to rank it #1 and after that the song should stabilize itself around the low 90s to mid 80s.

Ayah Marar and Clavin Harris stay at #2 with smash hit "Thinking About You". Last week it hit a new high in total airplay with 109 plays. This week it sinks to a still excellent 91 plays (-16.51%). This marks its second highest airplay week. Ayah Marar additionally opens lower on the chart with a new song titled "Mind Controller" from the album The Real, which was just released in the USA about 6 weeks ago.

Avril Lavigne moves 5-3 with second official single "Rock n Roll". The song follows the #1 peaking "Here's to Never Growing Up" as the next top 5 single. This week it heavily benefits from the release of the song on iTunes, the success of the music video and just being up overall in airplay.

Lana Del Rey slides one position (3-4) with the remix of "Summertime Sadness". After garnering 104 plays last week, the song dips to 83 plays (-20.19). Just last week it took the Airplay Gainer ribbon when it jumped up 28 positions, off one spot from the record of "Biggest Week to Week Position Gain" which is currently held by Nicole Scherzinger's #10 peaking "Boomerang".

Macklemore & Ryan Lewis slide 4-5 with "Same Love (feat. Mary Lambert)". It becomes the duo's first non number 1 hit. It peaked at #2 for 3 consecutive weeks just recently. Despite the continued drop, the performance with Jennifer Hudson at the VMAs on Sunday night might help propel it upwards.

Mia Martina rebounds 8-6 after previously peaking at #4 on the chart with "La La". It became the most voted song of the week on Twitter and this honor (1st one to get boost) allows it to climb up two spaces this week. You can vote every week by tweeting to me here!

The Imagine Dragons slide 6-7 after hitting a new high last week with only top 10 single "Radioactive". Based on the overall competition in the top 10 and even 20, this small dip could very well be the end of this song. If it continues to sink, it will likely end up below the top 10 in a few weeks. This will not be a small dip, it would probably cause the song to even fall out of the top 20, as most songs departing the top 10 topple quickly (example: "Can't Hold Us (feat. Ray Dalton)" by Macklemore & Ryan Lewis had an excellent run on the chart, but quickly got sucked into the top 20 vortex and ended up dipping 9 positions while departing the top 10. It moved downward 10-19 that week).

Robin Thicke's monstrous hit single, and former two week front runner "Blurred Lines (feat. Pharrell and T.I.)" drops down one rung to #8 (7-8). If it continues to stay within the top 10, Robin Thicke could potentially have a running streak of consecutive weeks in the top 10. This is possible due to "Give It 2 U (feat. Kendrick Lamar)" quickly and rapidly rising through the top 20. Although this is possible, it wouldn't even come close to the record for an artist (hem hem Rihanna) and is still unlikely. More news on this story as it develops.

Vita Chambers returns to the top 10 for the first time in months with the number 9 debuting song "Masquerade. The last time I had the pleasure of writing about a Vita Chambers song debut was December 14th, 2012 when "Fix You" debuted at No. 10 with 56 plays. It later went on to peak at #1 for 4 consecutive weeks and become one of the biggest songs to ever hit the chart. Also please note that most artists don't achieve this feat with their first single. The funny thing is, "Masquerade" opened 1 position higher and had a three day start of 68 plays (+21.42%). Who knows what would have happened if it had started at the beginning of the week. Could it have dethroned "Applause"? We will never know.

Finally Ellie Goulding stalls at #10 with her newest track "Burn" from the just released re-issue of Halcyon, titled Halcyon Days which hit stores Tuesday, August 27th, 2013. The song follows Ellie's other singles to reach the top 10: "Figure 8" which peaked at #1 for two consecutive weeks, "Lights" and "I Need Your Love (feat. Calvin Harris)" which both stopped at #4. "Anything Could Happen" is also notable for reaching #11 (ugh... so close), and it is also notable that both "Under Control" (peaked #23 so far) and "You, My Everything" (peaked #25 so far) succeeded the song. This brings Ellie's total to as follows:

#1's: 1
Top 5's: 3
Top 10's: 4
Top 20's: 5
Top 30's: 7
Charting Titles: 7

Come back tomorrow for the full chart!

Monday, August 26, 2013

Chart: August 22nd, 2013

#
LW
2W
PK
WKs
Name
Artist
1
NEW
-
1
1
***NUMBER 1***
***HOT SHOT DEBUT***
***BIGGEST AIRPLAY WEEK***
Applause {#1 for 1 Week}
Lady Gaga
2
1
12
1
12
Thinking About You (feat. Ayah Marar) {#1 for 1 Week}
Calvin Harris
3
31
44
3
4
***AIRPLAY GAINER***
***GREATEST GAINER***
Summertime Sadness
Lana Del Rey
4
2
2
2
20
Same Love (feat. Mary Lambert)
Macklemore & Ryan Lewis
5
5
6
5
4
Rock n Roll
Avril Lavigne
6
7
8
6
11
***CDS PICK HIT***
Radioactive
Imagine Dragons
7
3
1
1
15
Blurred Lines (feat. Pharell Williams & T.I.) {#1 for 2 Weeks}
Robin Thicke
8
4
5
4
12
La La
Mia Martina
9
6
3
1
15
Red Cup {#1 for 4 Weeks}
Katy Tiz
10
11
13
10
7
Burn
Ellie Goulding
11
12
15
11
14
Mirrors
Justin Timberlake
12
13
16
12
9
Ciao (Reload)
Lollipop
13
17
24
13
4
Wing$
Macklemore & Ryan Lewis
14
18
26
14
9
Clarity (feat. Foxes)
Zedd
15
24
-
15
2
***STREAMING GAINER***
Roar
Katy Perry
16
8
4
3
28
***LONGEST CLIMB TO TOP 5***
People Like Us
Kelly Clarkson
17
9
7
4
14
We Got the Power
Loreen
18
19
27
18
8
Give It 2 U (feat. Kendrick Lamar)
Robin Thicke
19
10
9
1
27
***BIGGEST FALLER***
Can’t Hold Us (feat. Ray Dalton) {#1 for 3 Weeks}
Macklemore & Ryan Lewis
20
14
10
1
19
Here's To Never Growing Up {#1 for 4 Weeks}
Avril Lavigne
21
15
11
1
14
***EUROVISION 2013 WINNER***
Only Teardrops {#1 for 2 Weeks}
Emmelie De Forest
22
20
22
20
12
Future Dreams
Too Smooth
23
NEW
-
23
1
Under Control
Ellie Goulding
24
16
14
1
34
***LONGEST CLIMB TO #1***
Figure 8 {#1 for 2 Weeks}
Ellie Goulding
25
23
28
11
20
Glowing
Nikki Williams
26
28
-
26
2
Hold On, We’re Going Home (feat. Majid Jordan)
Drake
27
21
17
11
8
The Only Way
Shermanology
28
22
18
9
16
The Way (feat. Mac Miller)
Ariana Grande
29
25
25
25
7
You, My Everything
Ellie Goulding
30
26
20
11
12
Wild (feat. Big Sean)
Jessie J
31
27
21
8
11
Killer
Sharon Doorson
32
40
46
32
4
Safe and Sound
Capital Cities
33
35
35
33
7
American Girl
Bonnie McKee
34
29
19
3
15
Stars
Kat DeLuna
35
30
23
12
15
Live It Up (feat. Pitbull)
Jennifer Lopez
36
43
-
36
2
Royals
Lorde
37
32
30
4
18
Hold On
NERVO
38
33
31
14
15
Beautiful (feat. Miguel)
Mariah Carey
39
34
34
34
8
Live For the Night
Krewella
40
36
33
3
20
Fail In Love
Sharon Doorson
41
44
45
41
4
The Other Side
Jason Derülo
42
38
42
1
37
Fix You {#1 for 4 Weeks}
Vita Chambers
43
39
41
1
26
I Love It (feat. Charlie XCX) {#1 for 1 Week}
Icona Pop
44
NEW
-
44
1
Wake Me Up (feat. Aloe Blacc)
Avicii
45
42
32
10
12
We Own It (Fast and Furious)
2 Chainz and Wiz Khlaifa
46
41
38
7
25
Heart Attack
Demi Lovato
47
47
36
22
14
Treasure
Bruno Mars
48
NEW
-
48
1
Acapella
Karmin
49


28
11
Crazy Kids
Ke$ha
50
NEW
-
50
1
Take Back the Night
Justin Timberlake


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