Wednesday, August 14, 2013

The LOOK Vol. 3

In this new weekly feature titled "The LOOK", I will feature data about the positioning of hot/upcoming songs reflecting the first 4 days of the weekly airplay tracker (Saturday - Wednesday). To keep things more interesting, I will not feature any information about songs that charted in the top 10 during the previous week. The only way that a song in the top 10 could be featured is if it jumps into the top 10 from a rank of at least 5 position lower during the previous week.

For example:
#15-#10 (Covered)
#14-10 (Not Covered)
#14-9 (Covered)

Debut In Top 10 (Covered)
etc.

Anyway lets kick off the second edition of "The LOOK"!


As previously noted, Lady Gaga's "Applause" is heading for a large entry on the August 23rd, 2013 chart. Yesterday's prediction showed that the single could wrap a first week total north of 120 plays. Wednesday's overall plays shows that the prediction was off quite a bit. Through 3 days of airplay, "Applause" has racked a massive total of 110 spins (which is 3rd among all time records at the moment). A previous 2 day forecast showed a total of 70+ after the song took in 43 spins in day 1 (Monday). In reality the song brought in 45 plays in day 2 (Tuesday), up about 4% from day 1 and coming in with a 2 day total of 88 spins. Despite this uptick on day 2, the song fell a rough 51% in day 3. Here is a breaking down of the spin percentages per day:


Day
Spins
% Of Total
% Increase/Decrease
Total Spins (Thus Far)
1
43
39%
NEW
43
2
45
41%
+4.65%
88
3
22
20%
-51.11%
110

3- DAY SPIN TOTAL: 110


Based on the above data, here is a chart with more predictions for the week. The 5 day total should reach about 180 plays.


Day
Spins
% Of Total
(5 Day Est)
% Increase/Decrease
Total Spins (Thus Far)
1
43
39% (23%)
NEW
43
2
45
41% (25%)
+4.65%
88
3
22
20% (12%)
-51.11%
110
PREDICTIONS FOR REST OF THE TRACKING PERIOD
4
36 (Est)
(20%)
+63.63% (Est)
146 (Est)
5
37 (Est)
(20%)
+2.77% (Est)
183 (Est)

5 - DAY SPIN TOTAL ESTIMATE: 183

Katy Perry's "Roar" which claimed enough airplay in 1 day to rank #24 on the August 15th, 2013 chart has started to slip, but still manages to bring in an estimated 95 plays from Saturday to Wednesday. Here is a chart showing overall plays between Lady Gaga and Katy Perry this week and how their first 5 days turned out. As you can see, Katy was down about 80 spins in a five week period v.s. Gaga and was down about 100 this week. In terms of the two days that the songs Lady Gaga easily wins the battle (88 v.s. 26). Still Katy Perry is set to have an amazing week, that could catapult her into the top 10. Additionally, on 8/14/13 she scored 12 plays (+33.33%).



Other songs quickly moving up the chart include Macklemore's "Wing$", Zedd's "Clarity (feat. Foxes)", Lana Del Rey's "Summertime Sadness", and Drake's "Hold On, We're Going Home".

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