Forecast: Gaga Headed For 3rd Week Atop List

These past few weeks have been starting to take a similar shape to those that occurred in September/October 2012. In both years, there was a song that had a big jump to #1. Their runs at #1 were cut short because of other songs debuting at the top. I am referring to these songs specifically:

-"Your Body" by Christina Aguilera

-"Diamonds (Shahaf Moran Remix)" by Rihanna

-Thinking About You (feat. Ayah Marar)" by Calvin Harris

-"Applause" by Lady Gaga

In 2012, Christina Aguilera leaped 7-1 on the week of September 27th (11 months and 1 day from today).  The following week, Rihanna's track had the Hot Shot Debut at #2. Although Aguilera landed above it that week, "Your Body" passed the top position to "Diamonds (Shahaf Moran Remix)" the next week. Rihanna's song ended up ruling for 7 consecutive weeks (at the time a record). This is similar to how "Thinking About You (feat. Ayah Marar)" jumped 12-1 on August 15th this year, before passing the crown to Lady Gaga's "Applause". So far "Applause" has spent two weeks atop the list. The point that I am trying to get across is that "Applause" could end up ruling for upwards of two months (there is currently an 8 week record).

Back to this week's forecast. Lady Gaga's "Applause" is starting to even out its airplay total after a big debut and a big dip. This week it should smooth out to the mid 90s range. Our prediction was about 97 plays through 7 days. Through 5 days it has had a spin count of 79 which means that the song is above the estimated average by about 2-3 plays a day. The song needs at least 9 plays each on Thursday and Friday to get to 97 weekly spins. It is highly likely. Based on the success of this week so far, we have a new estimate of 93 for next week. This will likely keep the song at #1 for a 4th week, unless Eminem's "Berzerk" or Vita Chamber's "Masquerade" have high rises.