While most of the country's (United Kingdom) music buying population will fall into the trap of downloading both tracks upon their release, the remaining music gurus will note several major issues with the tracks: they're both generic, fluffed, over-hyped, extremely repetitive and lack any sort of uniformed structure. In my opinion, they're both dead on arrival (D.O.A), though they'll likely both be modest sellers. But which one is going to be a tougher sell to the highly BBC influenced UK market? It just might be an unfortunate tie.
"Your Love" by Nicole ScherzingerReview: While it's more radio friendly than most of her recent endeavors ("Try With Me", "Wet", "Boomerang"), "Your Love" definitely joins the ranks of Nicole Scherzinger's complete busts mainly because it feels dull, cheap and a wasted attempt at trying to achieve chart success. The 4 minute long track drudges on with its extremely repetitive and overly simplified hook ("du-du-du-du, du-du-du-du"), its noisy, overtly populated chorus, and worst of all: its hook sounds like it was written by a 5 year old child: "I need you in the daytime, especially in the night time...". Additionally, the album version has an unneeded 20-30 second outro that just makes the whole experience even more unflattering. Thankfully, the video (while being somewhat generic) was nicely executed and somewhat entertaining. It's a major disappointment in my mind.
Performance Predictions & New Release/Competition Data
So how will "Your Love" perform? That's a really tough question to answer. Nicole Scherzinger's previous release (2013's "Boomerang") was initially snubbed at UK radio upon release "due to a large amount of other important releases", but by mid-week, the track had triumphed as one of the most requested new entries at radio and finally started to receive support. It's slow start led it to begin with just under 50,000 copies (47,000) in its first week in the United Kingdom, enough to open at #6. Of the 6 tracks previously released by Scherzinger since 2011 (when her debut solo album was released), 4 of them debuted with first week sales within the top 20 ("Poison", "Don't Hold Your Breath", "Try With Me", and "Boomerang"). The other 2 ("Right There" and "Wet") debuted with smaller totals, as they were released either mid week or charted before their official release. The 4 that debuted with full week sales averaged sales of 58,435 each, while "Right There" (which eventually ended up peaking at #3) sold 51,355 during its most successful week. That brings the average down to 57,019, though that's not much of a difference.
After looking at all of Nicole's sales, its likely that "Your Love" will stay inside Nicole's boundaries (lowest first week sales: 21,315; highest first week sales: 98,000). Given the more radio friendly culture of "Your Love", I'm expecting it to open approximately 10% higher than Scherzinger's average. That would put it in line for a debut around 63,000 copies.
While sales are most important in reality, most people think that peak position means something. No. In some weeks, being #2 can mean that your sales are higher than the sales of a #1 track from a few weeks ago. Anyway, let's attempt to calculate a position. For this, we'll need to start looking at tracks that will likely hold well through July 13th.
New releases for June 29th include the following:
-"Problem (feat. Iggy Azalea)" by Ariana Grande
-"Chandelier" by Sia
-"Make U Bounce" by DJ Fresh & TC
-"Wiggle (feat. Snoop Dogg)" by Jason Derülo
-"Street Love" by Rough Copy
-"Love Somebody" by Jason Mraz
-"Headlights (feat. Nate Ruess)" by Eminem
-"Classic" by MKTO
-"Uptight Downtown" by La Roux
Of these 9 major releases, only 6 are likely to reach the top 100 on the UK Official Charts, while 4 should debut within the top 10 (based on current numbers). Leading the pack, Ariana Grande's "Problem (feat. Iggy Azalea)" will likely debut at #1, followed by Sia's "Chandelier" and DJ Fresh & TC's "Make U Bounce" toward the end of the top 10. Jason Derülo's "Wiggle (feat. Snoop Dogg)" could snag a top 10 position, but a top 20 opening is more likely. Of those 4, only 1 ("Problem") will likely produce a strong hold heading into the next week of release.
Speaking of the next week of release, here are the major releases for July 6th:
-"It's My Birthday (feat. Cody Wise)" by will.i.am
-"Worst Behavior" by Drake
-"Right Here" by Jess Glynne
-"Don't Look Back (feat. Tanya Lacey)" by Matrix & Futurebound
-"Somebody To You (feat. Demi Lovato)" by The Vamps
Drake's "Worst Behavior" will likely open below the top 100 (three of his singles from his most recent album have). will.i.am has been responsible for 7 top 5 singles, 6 of which came during the promotion for his latest album, 2013's #willpower, so "It's My Birthday" should be able to score a top 10 opening. Matrix & Futurebound have released 3 major singles together, each resulting in a higher chart placement (all top 30). Late 2013's "Control" reached as high as 7 (off a top 20 debut), giving me reason to believe that "Don't Look Back" will debut in the top 20. Unfortunately, the featured artist on "Don't Look Back" (Tanya Lacey) has only appeared on the UK Charts once before. The Vamps have reached the top 3 with all of their released singles, but given that "Somebody To You" has been in release as a solo version since April, an official release with a new version featuring Demi Lovato doesn't seem like it has enough power to reach the top 5, let alone #1 (which they've missed 3/3 times). The real winner will likely be Jess Glynne's "Right Here". Glynne has been the voice behind 2 #1 singles in the United Kingdom (both in 2014).
The best bet is that will.i.am and Jess Glynne will duke it out for the summit, with Ariana Grande's holdover having a chance at holding the top slot if things go awry.
Finally we arrive at the July 13th releases:
-"Your Love" by Nicole Scherzinger
-"War Rages On" by Alex Clare
-"If I Go" by Ella Eyre
-"Already Home" by A Great Big World"
-"URL Badman" by Lily Allen
-"Me & My Broken Heart" by Rixton
Alex Clare's "War Rages On" will likely become a major disaster like nearly all of the rest of his discography, Ella Eyre's "If I Go" (while unlikely) could be her breakout hit; she previously failed to reach the top 40 as a lead artist with all her attempts (#78 is her best result). A Great Big World has only had 1 major release (which did well thanks to a Christina Aguilera feature) so its hard to figure out where "Already Home" will enter. Lily Allen's fan favorite "URL Badman" should be the 3rd top 10 release from Sheezus, while new London based act Rixton could debut anywhere with debut single "Me & My Broken Heart", though a top 10 opening is likely given the track's massive success worldwide. Nicole Scherzinger's "Your Love" will likely be the top debut. If it does sell around, 67,000 copies in its first week, it'll likely debut within the top 3 (the odds of debuting at #1 are slim: 10-15%).
Sales Prediction: 67,000
Rank Prediciton: #4
"Crazy Stupid Love (feat. Tinie Tempah)" by Cheryl Cole"Review: Jumping onto the trumpet backed bandwagon, Cheryl Cole's "Crazy Stupid Love (feat. Tinie Tempah)" sounds like a mixture of Jason Derülo's "Talk Dirty", Ariana Grande's "Problem" and some random pop song that nobody can figure out the name of. In simpler terms: its a huge waste of time. It has no proper chorus, it lacks originality, and it feels like an unnecessary inclusion in the fairly solid discographies of both Cheryl Cole and Tinie Tempah. I will give it credit for two things (but two things only): first off, the combination of Cheryl Cole and Tinie Tempah in one song will likely blow the socks off of the UK as a whole, as both artists are known as prolific acts that have strung together loads of successful singles. Second, Cheryl Cole sure does know how to captivate audiences. Need proof? Just look at the track's single cover.
Performance Predictions & New Release/Competition Data
Cheryl Cole and Tinie Tempah both have massive discographies, and both have had massive success. They've each scored 4 #1 singles, and they've each tallied over 10 top 20 singles each as well. Tinie Tempah has scored 12 top 10s, 14 top 20s, and 17 top 40 hits out of 19 releases in the United Kingdom. Cheryl Cole (without counting releases as a part of Girls Aloud) has had a track record of 7 top 10 singles, and 10 top 20 singles. In other words, all of her released singles have debuted in the top 20. As a part of Girls Aloud, Cheryl Cole has racked another 4 #1 singles, 9 top 2 singles, 12 top 3 singles, 15 top 4 singles, 16 top 5 singles, 21 top 10 singles and 22 top 20 singles, out of 23 official releases. That brings her total to a massive 28 top 10s (as a solo artist, featured artist and as part of Girls Aloud) out of 33 releases (84% of all releases).
Since we know all the releases up until July 20th, let's start looking at the details there. Here's the list of new releases for July 20th:
-"Crazy Stupid Love (feat. Tinie Tempah)" by Cheryl Cole
-"Home (feat. Sam Romans)" by Naughty Boy
-"Louder" by Neon Jungle
-"My Friend Has A Swimming Pool" by Mausi
-"Emotions (Ain't Nobody)" by Maverick Sabre
-"Always (feat. Alana) [Route 94]" by MK
-"Netzwerk (Falls Like Rain)" by Klangkarussell
-"Liberate" by Eric Prydz
-"Sirens" by Cher Lloyd
-"Boom Clap" by Charli XCX
Wow that's one competitive week. Let's break it down.
First off, Charli XCX's "Boom Clap" will likely debut in the middle of the top 100. Why? After she went to #1 with Icona Pop's "I Love It" in July 2013 in the United Kingdom, she released a solo single titled "SuperLove". It debuted and peaked at #62. In early 2014, she guest featured on Iggy Azalea's "Fancy" which peaked at #5. If her first track after a #1 as a featured artist can only reach #62, then where do you think her first release after a #5 as a featured artist will land? Not that high on the list. Only advantage: the track is taken from the UK hit movie The Fault In Our Stars.
Naughty Boy has tallied 4 UK top 10s out of 7 releases, but 3 of those came from tracks featuring Emeli Sandé, while another non top 10 effort had Naughty Boy featuring on a Emelié Sande release. Sam Romans has never been heard of, which leads me to believe that this new single won't match the success of Naughty Boy's previously released singles. I'm expecting a top 20 launch.
Neon Jungle's "Louder" should be on pace for a top 10 finish, while Maverick Sabre's track should open somewhere in the top 20 (based on his previous releases). Mausi's "My Friend Has A Swimming Pool" could end up becoming a runaway success, or a complete flop; I'm guessing it'll have a noteworthy debut. Cher Lloyd has had mixed success: all her singles released before the launch of an album have become top 5 hits (that's only 2 though), while all singles released afterward have been disappointments. Since "Sirens" precedes the UK release of Cher's Sorry I'm Late by one week, I'm expecting it to open somewhere in the top 10 (#1 unlikely).
Eric Prydz's "Liberate" will also be opening. Prydz's entires have done extremely well (3 top 5 singles) or terrible in the past (3 non top 40 releases). I'm expecting "Liberate" to be a top 10 hit.
Sales Prediction: 89,000
Rank Prediciton: #2
I personally believe that both tracks are silly and ridiculous, but now its your turn to tell me which one you think is worse. Vote below.
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