Forecast: Maroon 5's "Maps" Likely to Miss #1 Debut

I know that "Maps" has yet to debut, but I've looked at some of the data from Maroon 5's previous debuts over again. I've infused these numbers with newer numbers provided by recent hits (particularly the scores of top 5 tracks within the last several weeks) to come up with what I believe to be a balanced estimation. Despite the fact that overall plays have jumped significantly from 2012, "Maps" will likely have a hard time debuting in line with the 116 play debut of "Payphone (feat. Wiz Khalifa)" mainly because of tough competition from both Sanna Nielsen's "Undo" (which registered 119 plays last week to rank at #1) and Kiesza's "Hideaway" (which, though slipping 1-2, scored over 100 plays last week). Furthermore, Kiesza's latest track, "Giant In My Heart" could be headed for a top 5 debut as well ("Hideaway" opened at #1). The fact that two tracks by large debuting artists are headed for massive openings will easily chip away at either one or both of the tracks' final scores.

Even if "Maps" opens in line with the 116 spin debut of "Payphone (feat. Wiz Khalifa)", that probably won't translate into a #1 debut. To guarantee the #1 slot in its debut frame, the track would need between 125 and 135 spins, a threshold that's only been broken 3 times (all by the same artist).

At this point, "Maps" could reach as high as #3 in its debut frame though even that might be a bit generous. It's likely that "Maps" winds up somewhere in the top 10 given that "Payphone", "One More Night" and "Love Somebody" all opened within the region. What's surprising is that all of Maroon 5's top 10 debuts (except for the top 10 ranking of "Moves Like Jagger" on the first ever chart in January 2012) have reached the top slot at some point or another, so "Maps" could still have a chance at #1 later on even if it debuts off of #1.

Forecast (Chart dated June 26th)
#1(=) "Undo" by Sanna Nielsen - 125 (+5.04%)
#2(=) "Hideaway" by Kiesza - 111 (+3.73%)
#3(NEW) "Giant In My Heart" by Kiesza - 108 (+3500%)
#4(NEW) "Maps" by Maroon 5 - 105 (NEW)
#5(-1) "Fancy (feat. Charli XCX)" by Iggy Azalea - 103 (+4.04%)

Bar For Success
Maroon 5's "Maps" really ought to open within the top 3, but any debut within the top 10 is a pass. Kiesza's "Giant In My Heart" is in fine shape if it reaches the top 20, in great shape if it debuts in the top 10. If "Undo" doesn't score a second week at #1, it's overall run might as well be dead already.