Forecast: Katy B, Rixton and Secondcity Headed For Top Debuts

Recap
As the tracking week is now just a few hours away from closing, it appears that Ed Sheeran's tracks won't be attacking the Hot 50 this week. It was previous reported that up to 7 of the tracks from his just released X album could inflict damage onto the Hot 50. Of those 7 tracks, only three of those tracks ("Don't", "The Man" and "Bloodstream") have even a chance at debuting on the Hot 50 this week. That leaves tracks like "Afire Love", "Sing", "One", "Photograph", "Thinking Out Loud" and "I See Fire" out of Hot 50 spots. Not to worry, however. They still have a shot of cracking the list at a later time ("Afire Love" and "Thinking Out Loud" have the best chance).

So... what's changed?

A lot.

New Entries/Dropouts
After I published my article about the tracks from X, I received some recommendations for tracks by Katy B ("Crying For No Reason"), Secondcity ("I Wanna Feel"), and Rixton ("Me & My Broken Heart"). Two of these tracks (Secondcity and Rixton) were already contenders (Rixton's track had been under my radar for a few months, while Secondcity's track had emerged on my radar a few weeks ago) for the chart, while Katy B's song (which I had heard once or twice before) got a nice push from an amazing remix I found (and subsequently played the hell out of) that was created by an online remixer named Tom Damage.

Now, it looks like Katy B's track will have the highest debut this week, with a top 20 debut in reach. Secondcity's "I Wanna Feel" could clock in the top 25, while Rixton's "Me and My Broken Heart" should punch in with a more modest debut (35-45). They're guaranteed slots at this point.

On the other hand, Ed Sheeran's efforts are kind of in a tough spot. "Don't" currently leads the pack, and could possibly debut as high as #30, but a debut around #40 is a more reasonable estimate. "The Man" and "Bloodstream" are going to have marginal debuts on the chart (if they even crack the top 50), and they'll likely wind up between #45-50.

With perhaps 6 tracks from last week's Hot 50 departing from the upcoming list, Ed Sheeran should scoop 3 new entries, while Katy B, Rixton and Secondcity will get one each. See the singles that will likely drop off the Hot 50 when the final tally is released:

- "Brooklyn Baby" by Lana Del Rey
- "Shades of Cool" by Lana Del Rey
- "Happy" by Pharrell Williams
- "Partition" by Beyoncé
- "Say Yes" by Destiny's Child
- "Drunk In Love (feat. Jay Z)" by Beyoncé

Top 5 Contenders
Things in the top 5 this week appear to be running on par with last week. Sanna Nielsen's "Undo" should take 1st place for a third consecutive week to tie Loreen's "Euphoria" for the longest #1 run of any track from any year of the Eurovision Song Contest (coincidentally, both women are from Sweden).

Kiesza's "Hideaway" should nail a 3rd straight week at number 2, for 9 consecutive weeks in the top 2 (the deep house anthem previously topped the CDS Music Chart Hot 50 for 6 consecutive frames from the start of May to mid June. Next week, it'll reach Gold certification status for 500+ points earned.

Maroon 5's brand new single "Maps" (which was last week's Hot Shot Debut) should bullet at number 3 for a second straight week, though its numbers should climb past 120 points.

Clean Bandit's "Rather Be (feat Jess Glynne)" should wind up in 4th place for the second straight week, which will raise its overall score to 785+. That puts it among the top 8 biggest scorers of the year so far, an impressive achievement for a track that's both still climbing and in its 20th week. Shakira's "Dare (La La La)" should round out the top 5 and hold the Voter's Choice #1 title for a second straight week.