Forecast Update: Shakira Headed For Top 5

"Like the empire of the world unite / We are alive / And the stars make love to the universe / You're my wild fire every single night / We are alive / And the stars make love to the universe / And you touch me / And I'm like and I'm like and I'm like / Oooo Oooo..."

-Shakira on "Empire"

Coming off of a stellar start on day 1, Shakira's 2nd single from her upcoming eponymous 10th studio album, "Empire", continues to prove its success. On Tuesday (day 2 of release), the single added a monstrous 25 points (+19%) for a large two day haul of 46 spins. Today's total is about even with Shakira's own "Can't Remember to Forget You (feat. Rihanna)", which had a day 2 total of 26 points. Though "Empire" had a slightly smaller 2nd day haul than the previously mentioned single (-4%), it pulled a much more successful 46 spins through the first two days of tracking combined (vs. 34; +35%).

As for day 3, "Empire" seems to be ahead of the curve. Most large profile pop tracks typically experience a 20% gain to a 10% drop during day 3 (days 1 and 2 really depend). Despite this, "Empire" had a 20% gain on day 2 (usually uncommon), which leads me to believe it will experience a 20% to 50% drop on day 3 (rather than on day 4). That will mean a day 3 total between 12 and 20 and an overall total between 58 and 66. A total over 60 through the end of day 3 almost guarantees a #1 debut, but slightly under that could result in a lower top 5 position. Based on the prediction for day 3, day 4 will likely see a 10-15 point haul for a range between 68-81. A 5th and final day should give the song roughly another 10-12 points for a range between 78-93.

Last week (which was one of the lowest recorded weeks in terms of points) had set the bar fairly low but almost all songs have spiked considerably this week, which is going to make this a very close race. Additionally, if it debuts at #1 this week it will be the 8th #1 debut in history and the 40th single to top the chart.

Come back tomorrow for another post!

Forecast: Shakira Set to Build An "Empire"

After a single day, Shakira's new single, "Empire", has gone way above what I expected. Figures for the track's first full day (Monday) have now become available and are quite impressive. Through the collective figures of the first 4 full days of tracking for all songs this week, the song ranks #18 with a strong 21 points. That's a straightaway 162% increase over the 1 day start of comparable Shakira track "Can't Remember To Forget You (feat. Rihanna)" which eventually recovered from one of the worst Rihanna starts in history.

The song is now on pace to end this week within the top 10 (and likely the top 5) with an overall opening likely between 65-80 points. That would put it within the range of the #9 debut of "Can't Remember To Forget You (feat. Rihanna)" (77 spins). By the end of tracking today (Tuesday), the song should have no trouble crossing 25 spins (likely have a 2 day total of ~38). If the song crosses past 60 by the end of day 3 the song will easily debut in the #1 position. This is unlikely (it may pass 50), but it isn't out of the question. It all boils down to promo, and fan reception on social media sites.

Described as a "rock" song, "Empire" returns Shakira to her earlier style of writing, composing and singing. Critics and fans alike have applauded Shak for moving past dance tracks and onto a sound that reminds us of her classic tracks. The song's under-polsihed vocals give a raw and natural feel to the song that veers away from the tropical stylings of her previously released track. I honestly believe it will be one of her most memorable and successful singles in quite a while.

Additionally Emmelie De Forest will likely return to the top 50 with her latest single "Rainmaker". Although it had a weak day 1 (just 3 points), the song should continue to rack up similar numbers through the week's end which would be enough to supply Emmelie with her 2nd charting single. A overall chart position between 40-50 is the best bet for the song this week.

Secondly I wanted to address some confusion between the official track lists for Shakira's new album. The album's new Spanish deluxe version has been confirmed as of today. It features a brand new cover. There is a regular version, another (non-spanish) deluxe edition, as well as the Target exclusive edition. It appears that each one has a slightly altered track list.

The standard version of the album has the cover featured to the left. It contains 12 tracks. It will be released worldwide through Sony Music and RCA between March 21st and March 28th (depending on countries). The track list is:

1. "Dare (La La La)"

2. "Can't Remember to Forget You (feat. Rihanna)"

3. "Empire"

4. "You Don't Care About Me"

5. "Cut Me Deep (feat. Magic)"

6. "Spotlight"

7. "Broken Record"

8. "Medicine (feat. Blake Shelton)"

9. "23"

10. "The One Thing"

11. "Nunca Me Acuerdo De Olvidarte"

12. "Loca Por Ti"

The non-spanish deluxe edition of the album has the cover featured to the right. This version contains 15 tracks. It will be released worldwide through Sony Music and RCA between March 21st and March 28th (depending on countries) alongside the regular edition of the album (not in spanish speaking countries). Bolded tracks are not included on the regular edition. The spanish deluxe version of the album has this cover as well. The track list is:

1. "Dare (La La La)"

2. "Can't Remember to Forget You (feat. Rihanna)"

3. "Empire"

4. "You Don't Care About Me"

5. "Cut Me Deep (feat. Magic)"

6. "Spotlight"

7. "Broken Record"

8. "Medicine (feat. Blake Shelton)"

9. "23"

10. "The One Thing"

11. "Nunca Me Acuerdo De Olvidarte"

12. "Loca Por Ti"

13. "La La La (Spanish Version)"

14. "Chasing Shadows"

15. "That Way"

The spanish deluxe version of the album has the same cover as the non-Spanish deluxe version. This version contains 15 tracks (slightly different from non-Spanish deluxe version). It will be released worldwide through Sony Music on March 28th alongside the regular edition of the album in Spanish speaking countries ONLY (namely Spain). Bolded tracks are not included on the worldwide non-spanish deluxe edition. Italicized tracks are in a different order from the over versions.

The non spanish version of "La La La", listed on other versions as "Dare (La La La)", was dropped from the track list along with "That Way" from the non-spanish deluxe edition.

1. "Nunca Me Acuerdo De Olvidarte" (Originally #11) 

2. "Empire" (Originally #2)

3. "You Don't Care About Me" (Originally #4)

4. "La La La (Spanish Version)" (Originally #13)

5. "Cut Me Deep (feat. Magic)"

6. "23" (Originally #9)

7. "The One Thing" (Originally #10)

8. "Medicine (feat. Blake Shelton)"

9. "Loca Por Ti" (Originally #12)

10. "Spotlight" (Originally #6)

11. "Broken Record" (Originally #7)

12. "Boig Per Tu (Spanish Catalan Version)"

13. "La La La (FIFA World Cup Brasil 2014)"

14. "Chasing Shadows"

15. "Can't Remember to Forget You (feat. Rihanna)" (Originally #1)

The Target exclusive deluxe edition of the album has the cover featured to the left. This version contains 15 tracks. It will be released ONLY in the United States through RCA on March 25th alongside the regular edition of the album. Bolded tracks are not included on the regular edition. The bolded tracks haven't been confirmed as the final Target edition tracks. The supposed track list is:

1. "Dare (La La La)"

2. "Can't Remember to Forget You (feat. Rihanna)"

3. "Empire"

4. "You Don't Care About Me"

5. "Cut Me Deep (feat. Magic)"

6. "Spotlight"

7. "Broken Record"

8. "Medicine (feat. Blake Shelton)"

9. "23"

10. "The One Thing"

11. "Nunca Me Acuerdo De Olvidarte"

12. "Loca Por Ti"

13. "La La La (Spanish Version)"

14. "Chasing Shadows"

15. "That Way"

Thanks for joining me for this week's forecast!

The Voice Is Back: Which Coach Will See Gains?

Tonight T.V.'s #1 singing reality show, The Voice, returns for it's highly anticipated 6th season! Returning to the judging panel are Shakira and Usher who first debuted on the show back in the Spring of 2013 (during the show's 4th season). They replace Christina Aguilera (who will be back for season 7) and Cee Lo Green (who officially departed the series for good back in season 5).

While the whole synopsis of the elimination format competition is to find the best new artist among competitors from across the United States. While it does try and find a new face for the music industry, the show also tries to heavily promote material released by the coaches on the show. Which ones will benefit this year? Keep reading to find out.

Back in season 1, Adam Levine and Christina Aguilera debuted a new single on the show alongside Maroon 5. That single (if you couldn't already guess) was "Moves Like Jagger". Fueled by the performance of the song on the show, the single went on to become one of the biggest selling singles of all time and hit #1 in numerous countries.

Season 2 saw more single releases for Adam Levine's band, Maroon 5. The most popular was "Payphone (feat. Wiz Khalifa)". That single matched the success of "Moves Like Jagger" and became my first ever #1. 

For the 3rd season both Cee Lo Green and Christina Aguilera needed the power of the show to promote their upcoming albums. Cee Lo's Christmas album failed to do much business, selling less than 200,000 through the end of 2012 while Christina's album, Lotus, marked another career low for the artist and sold about 250,000 copies in the United States through January 2013. Through the same period of time (October-December versus November-January) Christina had higher sales than Cee Lo but her album was still considered an underwhelming attempt. In comparison, Maroon 5's Overexposed sold between those two numbers (~225k) in opening week in June 2012.

Season 4 saw the promotion of Blake Shelton's 8th album, Based On A True Story, which was released on March 26th, 2013. The album proved to be a critical and commercial success and has since sold over 1.1 million in the United States alone. 

While season 5 didn't feature any new music from any of the coaches, it was used as a transitional period to end Cee Lo Green's run as a judge on the show.

Now in season 6, Shakira is likely to steal the show. Her 10th studio release, Shakira, will drop at the beginning of season 6 (March 25th).

The album has been preceded by lead single "Can't Remember to Forget You (feat. Rihanna)" and recently released single "Empire". 

The earlier mentioned track with Rihanna proved to be a worldwide hit and was praised for delivering an unexpected sound (and video if you know what I mean). To date the single has peaked at #1 in a handful of countries, #15 on the US Billboard Hot 100 and #3 on the CDS Music Chart Hot 50.

Meanwhile, "Empire", is just starting to warm up. While it is lyrically different than its predecessor, the song could be just what Shakira needs to hit #1 on the CDS Music Chart Hot 50. Currently, based on 1 full day of spins, the song is headed for a sharper start than "Can't Remember to Forget You (feat. Rihanna)". The song will easily reach the top 15, while I fully expect a top 10 start.

Watch The Voice season 6 two part premiere tonight starting at 8/7c and tomorrow at 8/7c!

Chart: February 27th, 2014

#	LW	2W	PK	WKs	Name	Artist
1	1	1	1	14	***NUMBER 1*** Mind Controller {#1 for 3 Weeks}	Ayah Marar
2	2	2	2	21	Counting Stars	OneRepublic
3	3	4	3	6	***RIHANNA’S 12TH TOP 5*** Can’t Remember to Forget You (feat. Rihanna)	Shakira
4	5	7	4	11	Drunk In Love (feat. Jay Z)	Beyoncé
5	4	3	1	17	Unconditionally {#1 for 3 Weeks}	Katy Perry
6	10	10	6	23	Dark Horse (feat. Juicy J)	Katy Perry
7	8	13	7	7	Talk Dirty (feat. 2 Chainz)	Jason Derülo
8	6	6	1	17	The Monster (feat. Rihanna) {#1 for 4 Weeks}	Eminem
9	13	-	9	2	You’re Mine (Eternal)	Mariah Carey
10	11	11	10	9	Under Control (feat. Hurts)	Calvin Harris & Alesso
11	7	5	4	12	Danse (feat. Dev)	Mia Martina
12	9	8	1	18	Do What U Want (feat. R. Kelly) {#1 for 6 Weeks}	Lady Gaga
13	15	17	13	5	Love Me Again	John Newman
14	12	9	1	28	***MOST WEEKS AT #1*** Applause {#1 for 11 Weeks}	Lady Gaga
15	16	16	15	13	Team	Lorde
16	25	-	16	2	Rather Be (feat. Jess Glynne)	Clean Bandit
17	14	14	2	31	Rock n Roll	Avril Lavigne
18	19	20	18	5	Jump	Rihanna
19	21	22	19	5	Losing Sleep	John Newman
20	17	12	9	35	Live For the Night	Krewella
21	18	15	2	20	Timber (feat. Ke$ha)	Pitbull
22	20	18	5	19	What Now	Rihanna
23	26	33	23	5	Happy	Pharrell Williams
24	24	24	1	39	Thinking About You (feat. Ayah Marar) {#1 for 1 Week}	Calvin Harris
25	28	30	25	5	Into the Blue	Kylie Minogue
26	38	39	1	60	***LONGEST CLIMB TO #1*** ***SONG OF 2013*** ***CHART SITTER*** ***AIRPLAY GAINER*** ***GREATEST GAINER*** Figure 8 {#1 for 2 Weeks}	Ellie Goulding
27	22	23	22	20	Brave	Sara Bareilles
28	23	21	3	19	What If?	Vita Chambers
29	31	27	1	18	Venus {#1 for 1 Week}	Lady Gaga
30	32	28	28	22	Demons	Imagine Dragons
31	NEW	-	31	1	***HOT SHOT DEBUT*** All of Me	John Legend
32	27	19	11	25	Wrecking Ball	Miley Cyrus
33	29	25	6	28	Wake Me Up (feat. Aloe Blacc)	Avicii
34	36	40	34	3	Goodness Gracious	Ellie Goulding
35	30	26	2	27	Masquerade	Vita Chambers
36	33	29	25	12	Parachute	Caroline Brooks
37	NEW	-	37	1	Calling All Hearts (feat. Robin Thicke & Jessie J)	DJ Cassidy
38	40	-	38	2	Partition	Beyoncé
39	34	32	2	21	Walking On Air	Katy Perry
40	45	42	35	9	XO	Beyoncé
41	39	34	21	15	Move	Little Mix
42	35	31	24	11	Hard Out Here	Lily Allen
43	37	35	9	27	Berzerk	Eminem
44	41	37	5	29	Hold On, We're Going Home (feat. Majid Jordan)	Drake
45	42	36	8	25	Stay the Night (feat. Haley Williams)	Zedd
46	44	41	17	11	Blow	Beyoncé
47	50	50	35	17	Let Me Go (feat. Chad Kroeger)	Avril Lavigne
48	46	43	5	28	Acapella	Karmin
49	47	44	8	34	Burn	Ellie Goulding
50	48	45	45	5	Cheating	John Newman