Lil Wayne's Long Delayed "Tha Carter V" Gets Cover and Release Date
Note: All sales and peak positions are derived from Nielsen Soundscan numbers confirmed via Billboard. None of the peak positions reflect ranks on the CDS Music Chart Hot 50. This post is just my personal analysis of how Tha Carter V will perform upon it's official release.
After years of talk and no official announcements, Drake and Lil Wayne announced the official release of Tha Carter V to be May 5th in early 2014. Unfortunately, this plan came to fruition as Lil Wayne's manager announced on March 27th that the album had been delayed. Fortunately, Lil Wayne surprised America and the world with the release of "Believe Me (feat. Drake)" on May 6th, 2014 instead. On July 2nd, another new release called "Krazy" dropped onto the internet. In early August a third release ("Gridin'") slithered onto the internet. At this point, many critics and fans speculated an official album announcement. On August 14th, it was officially announced that his supposed final album would hit digital and physical retailers on October 28th. The official album cover dropped later the same day. It features a young, tattooed Lil Wayne (like other Tha Carter installments) walking alongside his mother. Another song, "D'usse", was officially announced to be on the album.
All of this news is sure to generate some much needed buzz for Wayne (as will his tour with Drake), but one big question comes to mind regarding the album: "Will it become a massive hit?". With CD, vinyl and digital platforms all posting massive drop offs since 2011 (when his last Tha Carter installment saw release) it's unlikely that Tha Carter V sees first week sales as high as the last two Tha Carter installments (1,005,545 first week sales for the 3rd installment and 964,000 for the 4th installment). Still, we haven't factored in the fact that Lil Wayne has announced that this release will be his last one, which makes me think that it'll still end up selling moderately well. Also helping it is the fact that it's slated to arrive during a period that hasn't been booked up with album releases. With a date planned out so far ahead, most other artists should steer clear of a October 28th release. In other words, Tha Carter V could be the only major release on the date. The title itself will also make it a huge seller, as most fans have stuck with purchasing albums from the series while steering clear of the veteran rapper's other titles such as Rebirth and I Am Not A Human Being which both launched with a fraction of the sales that other Tha Carter installments did.
While most of these factors point to a major opening, none of the singles from Tha Carter V have actually broken out to become major successes. During promotion for Tha Carter IV, three singles became top 10 US hits ("6 Foot 7 Foot", "How to Love" and "She Will") while a 4th became a top 20 ("Mirror"). "John" reached #22 and "It's Good" reached #79. To date, the first two singles from The Carter V haven't performed nearly as well. "Believe Me" has reached #24 and "Krazy" has yet to chart.
I'm currently expecting the new album to score an opening frame north of 625,000 (which would be a slightly bigger launch than that of Drake's "Nothing Was the Same" back in 2013), which would easily make it the year's largest opening. Coldplay previously set the bar back in May with 383,000.
Final Prediction
Debut Week US Sales: 625,000
Debut Week US Rank: #1
Come back for more posts and for more album related posts.
No comments :
Post a Comment