Wednesday, August 20, 2014

Hot 50 Forecast: Bebe Rexha, Taylor Swift & Charli XCX Battle For Top Debut


With half the week already gone, it's time to take a moment to look at which stars are heating up the CDS Music Chart Hot 50 with brand new entries. I'll also cover some movers and shakers.

Biggest Debuts

Taylor Swift - "Shake It Off"
With the surprise announcement on Monday that "Shake It Off" would be the first single from Taylor Swift's upcoming 5th studio album (1989), the track quickly flew onto the building Hot 50 chart at #35. Just hours later (alongside the official iTunes release of the song), the track had already leaped 19 positions to #16 and looked to post the largest opening of any song this week. Further fueling its  fire was the Social Songs 100, where it quickly reached #2, behind only Bebe Rexha's latest release, "I Can't Stop Drinking About You". Thanks to a highly successful campaign among Taylor Swift fans online, "Shake It Off" eventually topped the Social Songs 100 around mid day Tuesday.

Thanks to the release of the track's video, the song received a one time bonus of 5 additional chart points, per the rules about songs with videos. Additionally, the track entered the Radio Songs chart at #38 on Monday night, quickly jumping to #9 on Tuesday. With a massive presence on all components, "Shake It Off" outpaced every other new track, and was just days away from claiming the biggest debut of the week.

However, that all changed come Wednesday afternoon. By 11 A.M. Wednesday, "Shake It Off" had dipped 16-24 on the Streaming Songs chart (the most critical of all component charts), and 9-16 on Radio Songs, though it firmly held the top spot on the Social Songs 100 ahead of "I Can't Stop Drinking About You" and previous chart topper "Bang Bang".

At this point, "Shake It Off" has lowered so much, that the other two new entries headed for Hot 50 debuts -- Bebe Rexha's "I Can't Stop Drinking About You" and Charli XCX's "Break The Rules" -- could actually debut above it. Keep reading to learn more.


Bebe Rexha - "I Can't Stop Drinking About You"
After the release of the track's music video last week, "I Can't Stop Drinking About You" began adding a small amount of points (thanks to a #45 debut on Streaming Songs), but ultimately fell short of the CDS Music Chart Hot 50 last week. However, the track's addition to the Social Songs 100 at the top of this week caused a massive frenzy online. Thanks to continuous votes, "I Can't Stop Drinking About You" instantly reached #1 on the Social Songs 100, and commanded said component list for about 1.5 days before dipping to the runner up position. A #25 rank on the Streaming Songs list by Monday night further pushed its cumulative points upward.

Unfortunately, "I Can't Stop Drinking About You" ultimately lost control of the summit on the Social Songs 100, and quickly fell victim to a massive downpour of negative votes thanks to unnecessary spam. With "I Can't Stop Drinking About You" being the prime beating bag for Nicki Minaj, Ariana Grande, Lady Gaga and Taylor Swift fans alike (because its the highest ranked competitor for those groups other then themselves), it's bound to drop even more by the end of the week. While I'm still expecting it to be in the top 10 on the Social Songs 100 when the final whistle blows, it's guaranteed to be on the fringe.

As for the Hot 50 itself, the track will debut, but how high has yet to be determined.


Charli XCX - "Break The Rules"
I've got to admit, Charli XCX has been a bit of a surpriser. She's landed 3 top 20 singles since her 2013 debut, including a #1 with Icona Pop ("I Love It") and her 'fancy' collaboration with Iggy Azalea and she is almost guaranteed to land a fourth...possibly this week.

Debuting at #11 on the Streaming Songs 100 and #5 on the Social Songs 100 upon release, "Break The Rules" quickly became one of the biggest openers on the respective charts. Unfortunately, its rank on the Social Songs 100 slowly deteriorated and its likely to drop out of the top 20 on that chart by the end of the week. That leaves only points earned on the Streaming Songs chart, but its high holding rank on that chart will likely translate to a decent debut. In fact, I'm expecting "Break The Rules" to claim the largest opening for a song this week.

Top Debuts (Estimates)
1. "Break The Rules" by Charli XCX
2. "Shake It Off" by Taylor Swift
3. "I Can't Stop Drinking About You" by Bebe Rexha

Biggest Climbers

Based on mid week numbers, Ella Henderson's "Glow" could rocket to the top 10 after a top 40 start last week, and Nicki Minaj's "Anaconda" (which dropped 29-40 last week) could reach the top 10 as well thanks to a massive rise on the Social Songs 100 (where it'll likely crown thanks to a continual rise), a debut on Radio Songs and a massive uptick on the Streaming Songs chart. Additionally, it'll receive a one time bonus of 5 additional chart points due to its video premiere (which of course broke the Vevo record).

Come back for the chart highlights and Hot 50 chart soon!

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