Forecast Update: Shakira & Rihanna Have Strong Day 2

After what I'd call a terrible opening day, Shakira and Rihanna's "Can't Remember To Forget You" added 26 spins for a 2 day total of 34 spins (+225%). This strong gain is likely going to get the song to debut in the lower end of the top 10. Remember I have no other data points, so it's really hard to give a detailed estimate. Still, based on other data from high profile pop debuts, Shakira and Rihanna should remain about even in terms of plays tomorrow. A reasonable estimate would be between a 20% slide to a 10% gain. With this said, the play count for tomorrow should range between 20-29. This puts the song at a 3 day total of 54-63. Day 4 should see another drop for sure. A typical drop would be about a 20% to 50% decrease. Therefore a good guess for day 4 spins would be between 10 and 23. While this range is fairly broad, adding different percentage variables widens the gap. Based on this forecast, a 4 day total should equate at the least to 64 with a possibility of topping at 86 spins. Reaching 86 spins is highly unlikely in 4 days because that would put the song inline for a top 3 debut. A 5th and final day should see the song clocking in another 10-15 spins. That should put the song between 74-101 spins. It's hard to rule out 101 spins so quickly but that would almost guarantee a #1 debut which is going to be extremely hard to achieve. My exact position guess for the end of the week at this time is #9.