As some longtime readers may recall, Rihanna had issue #1's 1st single (I went back and recreated charts for January - April 2012 because I didn't start posting until April 19th, 2012 so the 1st #1 was actually a Maroon 5 song) with "We Found Love (feat. Calvin Harris)". What was interesting about what the next two #1's? They were both Rihanna songs. Let's backtrack a second. If I had to go back and recreate December 2011 charts, "We Found Love (feat. Calvin Harris)" would have been #1 (actually it would have been #1 for the last 14 weeks of 2011). Similarly, "The Monster" (the current #1) features Rihanna and hit #1 in late 2013 and was the last #1 of that year. Before that, Rihanna had the last two #1's of 2010 ("Only Girl" reigned for 9 nonconsecutive weeks while "What's My Name" squeezed in 4 weeks in the middle of the previously mentioned song's run). Together those two songs spent 13 weeks at #1 (the last 13 weeks of 2010). That's how I got a crazy idea that maybe this song was destined to be #1 next.
Doesn't convince you? Alright then, moving on.
Shakira and Rihanna have had very solid reputations in pretty much everything. Pretty much everything they end up releasing blows up in their targeted markets. Although Shakira hasn't released any new material since the inception of this chart, looking back she has been the voice behind many of my favorite latin pop songs. "Hips Don't Lie" was my #1 song of 2005 and "Whenever, Wherever" was also a favorite. Rihanna on the other had has produced the most #1 hits on my chart, 5 so far. She has also landed the most top 5 hits (11) and the 2nd most charting songs so far with 16 (just 2 behind Nicki Minaj, who has the most). To summarize, everything they release is bound to be a hit. Based on that statement, anything they release together should trigger the biggest pop explosion the world has ever seen.
Despite this, I think it is very critical that they quickly release the video because it will hook with fans (no one wants to watch a video for a song after months of waiting). Though I don't generally look at music video data, if I end up watching a music video for a song (and I get through the full thing) the song gets a 1 time boost of 5 points because it takes extra effort to log in and watch a video. Regardless, the overall public (as I have noticed) tends to eat up videos from major artists. For example, look at the video for "Wrecking Ball" or even Rihanna's own video for "What Now". "Wrecking Ball" was the 1st new video from Miley Cyrus to be released after she had major success with "We Can't Stop". The video set the entire internet ablaze, even though it features Miley in a small hollywood stage with minimal to no clothing and a giant plastic looking ball with a chain (and of course a hammer). Still that is very minimal and has limited effects. Still, the song topped the Billboard Hot 100 for 3 weeks, set the VEVO 24 hour record and has raked in a lot of dough for Miley. The video for "What Now" runs along the same lines. It has a tad more of editing but features Rihanna in a plain dress dancing seizure-ishly in a small white room. It features a few fish scenes (probably from tapes of her exotic trips) but nothing else really happens. Though its chart success was minimal (it wasn't heavily marketed to radio or promoted much), it out peaked "Right Now" (didn't have a video) on the Billboard Hot 100 mainly because Rihanna has a huge video fan base. If interest and demand are high for a song, voters are more likely to vote for the song as their favorite of the week.
Another fact that I must consider is the fact that female pop collaborations tend to be hit or miss. "Do What U Want" by Lady Gaga was re-released with added vocals from Christina Aguilera (subtracting the original vocals provided by R. Kelly). It didn't really take off in terms of sales, just helped the other one gain some footing. Beyoncé and Alicia Keys also tried a duet that turned out to be a dud and a major commercial failure. Still, Rihanna & Britney Spears took "S&M" to #1 in 2011, Lady Gaga & Beyoncé took "Telephone" to #1 in early 2010, Beyoncé and Shakira also did well with "Beautiful Liar" and "The Boy Is Mine" by Brandy & Monica was a favorite of mine in 1998.
A song's debuting day is also a factor. If you are trying to claim #1 on my chart in your debut week, you need to release your music late on Friday night or on Saturday morning. If you don't do that, your chances of having a #1 debut drop significantly (also it has to be a good song).
Finally, you have to have a non-boring and stable tune. What I mean by this is that if a song debuts at #1 (though unlikely), it could have a quick tumble if the song becomes boring or bland when played in extreme amounts. Though I can't recall an incident like this with a #1 song or #1 debut, it has happened plenty of times with songs that debut high.
Weighing all of these facts, I would say it should debut within the top 10. If it will ever reach #1, it either needs to debut in the top 10, debut at #1, or jump a lot of positions in week two. I will give a forecast on Wednesday next week. Make sure to download the song (if you want to) on 1/13/14, its first day of release.
What do you think is going to happen? Do you think it will also be a commercial success?
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