Note: This is one of the few times I will talk about sales and positions on Billboard (because there is no other way to write this post without mentioning them). I’m not affiliated with Billboard, iTunes or Amazon.
As the summer album release season kicks off, a slew of new releases are set to dominate the US album marketplace this week. With 7 major label artists debuting with new albums during this frame, it’s going to easily be one of the most grueling weeks of 2014.
So who are the front-runners?
Lana Del Rey’s sophomore full-length album Ultraviolence, the most critically acclaimed new debut of the week (with a 73/100 on Metacritic at press time), should wind up as the biggest seller of the week. Many industry professionals are forecasting a debut around 175,000 copies (digital and physical combined) though based on early numbers, I think it’s possible the album winds up around the 200,000 copy mark. Either way, sales will likely climb around 100,000 from Lana Del Rey’s debut album, Born to Die, which became a Platinum success in the United States. Born to Die started with around 75,000 copies, enough to snag a No. 2 position on the Billboard 200 (measuring the 200 most purchased albums of the week) behind eventual 24 week leader 21 by Adele.
Ultraviolence, which received a positive review from me, has benefited immensely from strong word of mouth as well as lots of promotion. Prior to the release of the album, 1 official single (“West Coast”) as well as 3 promotional/digital exclusive singles (“Brooklyn Baby”, “Ultraviolence” and “Shades of Cool”) were offered to fans as part of a thank you for pre-ordering the album. Unfortunately for Lana Del Rey, the two other largest releases followed a similar strategy (Linkin Park and Sam Smith), with one of them (Sam Smith) possibly working better.
Before we get all wrapped up in the possibility that Sam Smith’s debut In the Lonely Hour - which will likely open with 160,000 or more first week copies - could wind up in first place above Lana Del Rey’s Ultraviolence, let’s look more closely at the details.
Yes, In the Lonely Hour did actually pull ahead of Ultraviolence briefly this Tuesday morning (though the latter has regained control of the chart). Additionally, many forecasters, reviewers and general consumers have noted that a non-deluxe version of In the Lonely Hour currently holds 6th place, which has led to lots of questions. But looking just a tad below the iTunes top 10 we find two more versions of Ultraviolence ranking at #15 and #18 (though when pre-order/yet to be released albums are removed, they stand at #13 and #16). That’s a pretty strong command of the region for Lana if you ask me.
To further discuss let’s whip out some numbers from single/promotional releases that preceded the album.
Sam Smith’s In the Lonely Hour has the luxury of being proceeded by three US Billboard Hot 100 top 20 singles: the #19 peaking “La La La” which features as a acoustic track (original by Naughty Boy in collaboration with Sam Smith), the #17 peaking “Latch” which features as a acoustic bonus track on the deluxe album (original by Disclosure in collaboration with Sam Smith) as well as the #10 peaking “Stay With Me” (which has been, and still is a strong digital seller). Promotional album efforts had more mixed success (in order from most to least successful): “I’m Not the Only One” debuted and has so far peaked at #69, “Leave Your Lover” debuted and peaked at #92 and fell of the chart after 1 week, and both “Money On My Mind” and “Lay Me Down” failed to make a dent (though they weren’t as heavily promoted).
Lana Del Rey’s Ultraviolence performed about the same: lead single “West Coast” debuted and peaked at #16 and fell of the US Billboard Hot 100 the following week, “Shades of Cool” debuted and peaked at #79 and fell of the US Billboard Hot 100 the following week, and title track “Ultraviolence” debuted and peaked at #70 (it’s currently still listed). Final numbers for “Brooklyn Baby” have yet to be announced.
In terms of overall single sales, Sam Smith clearly has Lana Del Rey beat, but as proved time and time again, strong single sales don’t always equate to strong album sales (see Rihanna).
But ahh! There’s more.
Interestingly enough, Lana Del Rey’s entire Ultraviolence album has appeared on the iTunes 200 Singles chart. All 15 tracks are ranked, with 12 holding in the top 100 (the other three are just barely out of the region). Additionally, “Once Upon A Dream” (another 2014 Lana Del Rey track that wasn’t on the album) ranks within the top 200.
Meanwhile, only 9 out of 14 tracks from Sam Smith’s In the Lonely Hour are in the top 200. Unfortunately for Smith, only two of those 9 are among the top 100, a fairly pitiful amount given the large amount of his tracks in the top 200. It’s also worth noting that In the Lonely Hour received more mixed reviews, while reviews for Ultraviolence (as previously mentioned) were much stronger.
On Amazon, Ultraviolence leads the digital best sellers list and ranks at #12 with another version of the album. In the Lonely Hour ranks at #3 (behind Linkin Park’s The Hunting Party) and again at #10. On the physical best sellers list, Lana Del Rey appears at #1, #8 and #23 with her new release, while In the Lonely Houris only present at #3 (from what I can tell. Yet again, Linkin Park’s The Hunting Party is sandwiched in between.
After weighing all the facts I think it’s safe to say that Lana Del Rey will be able to edge out new-comer Sam Smith by a wide enough margin to secure a #1 debut. Still, Smith will be able to put up a good fight againstUltraviolence. The real winner may in fact be Smith, mainly because it’s extremely difficult in this day and age to sell 150,000 copies or more with a debut album (back in the early 2000s that would have been an average debut opening).
Now that I’ve eaten up most of the time nitpicking at which albums will likely arrive in the top 2 rungs, let’s take a look at some other debuting albums that will score more modest openings slightly lower on the Billboard 200 chart.
The Hunting Party, Linkin Park’s 6th studio album and first since 2012’sLIVING THINGS, got off to a decent start when released at midnight on iTunes. First forecasted to sell 100,00 by the end of the week, The Hunting Party is now headed for a stronger debut upwards of 125,000. That’s a huge drop from the debut sales frame of June 2012’s LIVING THINGS(which wound up at No. 1 with over 220,000), but given the huge decline in sales in that short 2 year gap, 120,000 is still a number to be proud of. The Hunting Party is almost guaranteed to wind up in 3rd place (the first Linkin Park album to not reach #1 other than their debut set) no matter what.
The next highest debut will either come from deadmau5 or Jennifer Lopez. At this point, deadmau5’s effort, while (1<2), should be able to lock in the 4th highest debut with estimates point toward 40,000 sold - a 18,000 dive from the debut frame of the producer’s last album (physical and digital), but given the fact that it’s an early digital release only, digital sales should be on par with the producer’s last album (digital sales only; 41,000 versus 40,000 estimate). Even worse, Jennifer Lopez’s 8th studio album, A.K.A., will likely open between 30,000 and 40,000 copies sold. That’s a 40,000-50,000 copy drop off from her 2011 album, Love?, which started with an already meager 83,000. Currently, while (1<2) leadsA.K.A. in digital downloads (#5 versus #10), while A.K.A. obviously takes the lead in physical sales because nearly all physical retailers wont stock the new deadmau5 release until next week.
Still, these two albums could be barred from top 5 positions, as holdover No. 1 albums Platinum (Miranda Lambert) and Lazaretto (Jack White) could still post interesting numbers. If Lazaretto holds similarly to Jack White’s debut Blunderbuss, it’ll end its second frame with just over 50,000.
Finally, Tiësto’s latest effort should open with around 15,000 copies, which might translate to a top 20 open.
Who do you think will debut at #1? Is this battle already over, or is it just beginning? Let me know what you think below.
