Forecast: Usher Headed For Major Strides, Top 5 Remain Stable

New Entries & High Climbers
After adding two new entries last week (for a total of 4 since 2012), Usher's latest release, "She Came To Give It To You (feat. Nicki Minaj)" is set to be the top debut on this week's chart. Currently ranked at #14 on the building chart through this week's halfway mark, it's entirely possible that the track barely winds up within the top 20 when the week concludes, but an estimate around #25 to #30 would be a lot more reasonable. It's currently burning up in streaming and voting points, but US radio airplay has been nearly nonexistent at this point. Given that, I'm guessing only a handful of points will be derived from radio plays, which could cause it to open softer than expected. As I said earlier, a final week position between 25-30 would be a solid start and a win for Usher (who has had only one top 10 hit since 2012). It's guaranteed to be Nicki's 20th chart entry, further upping her lead as the artist with the most Hot 50 chart entries. Rihanna ranks in 2nd place with 18.

Usher's other tracks that will hold on the chart from last week (the Disclosure remix of "Good Kisser" and Chris Brown's "New Flame", which features Usher and Rick Ross) should also be able to muster up some decent business. "Good Kisser (Remix)", likely be the stronger of the two, ranks at #26 at the midweek stage. Despite a huge growth (it ranked at #46 when the final numbers came in last week), it has dropped off several positions from the start of the week (it at one point ranked at #20), so it's likely to drop more. It will likely wind up below "She Came To Give It To You (feat. Nicki Minaj)" this week, with a final rank between #35 to #40 being a good estimate.

Chris Brown's "New Flame" has had some trouble ranking up points this week (being snubbed by radio and other platforms), but could muster a several position increase at best. It's currently ranked at #40, but has held that position throughout the entire week so far. That leads me to believe it will hold strong through the week's end, with a final position just above or just below #40 likely.

T.I.'s "No Mediocre (feat. Iggy Azalea)" (which started off at a strong rank of #38 last week) is currently ranked at #11 through the midway stage, which is a huge lift of 27 positions. While it might wind up within the top 20, it's unlikely to reach the top 10... we'll see.

Tinashe's "2 On (feat. SchoolBoy Q)" is ranked at #21 at the midweek stage (it reached as high as #19  earlier this week), so I'm guessing it'll wind up with a 4 to 5 position gain from last week. More news soon.

Tracks Likely To Exit
- "Ultraviolence" by Lana Del Rey
- "Bloodstream" by Ed Sheeran

Top 5 Happenings
Maroon 5 is set to claim a second frame at #1, with Kiesza likely to reach the #2 for a fifth week with "Hideaway". That would put her in the top 2 for 11 weeks, the longest run in the region since OneRepublic's "Counting Stars" commanded the region for 13 straight weeks earlier this year. That song later went on to become the most successful single in my chart's history and is on its way to #1 for the end of 2014. Kiesza's other single ("Giant In My Heart") could snag the #3 position; Sanna Nielsen's former 3 week #1 "Undo" could ease 3-4 and Clean Bandit's "Rather Be" could drop 4-5 after peaking at #4 for 3 frames.

Come back for more news!

Forecast: Katy B, Rixton and Secondcity Headed For Top Debuts

Recap
As the tracking week is now just a few hours away from closing, it appears that Ed Sheeran's tracks won't be attacking the Hot 50 this week. It was previous reported that up to 7 of the tracks from his just released X album could inflict damage onto the Hot 50. Of those 7 tracks, only three of those tracks ("Don't", "The Man" and "Bloodstream") have even a chance at debuting on the Hot 50 this week. That leaves tracks like "Afire Love", "Sing", "One", "Photograph", "Thinking Out Loud" and "I See Fire" out of Hot 50 spots. Not to worry, however. They still have a shot of cracking the list at a later time ("Afire Love" and "Thinking Out Loud" have the best chance).

So... what's changed?

A lot.

New Entries/Dropouts
After I published my article about the tracks from X, I received some recommendations for tracks by Katy B ("Crying For No Reason"), Secondcity ("I Wanna Feel"), and Rixton ("Me & My Broken Heart"). Two of these tracks (Secondcity and Rixton) were already contenders (Rixton's track had been under my radar for a few months, while Secondcity's track had emerged on my radar a few weeks ago) for the chart, while Katy B's song (which I had heard once or twice before) got a nice push from an amazing remix I found (and subsequently played the hell out of) that was created by an online remixer named Tom Damage.

Now, it looks like Katy B's track will have the highest debut this week, with a top 20 debut in reach. Secondcity's "I Wanna Feel" could clock in the top 25, while Rixton's "Me and My Broken Heart" should punch in with a more modest debut (35-45). They're guaranteed slots at this point.

On the other hand, Ed Sheeran's efforts are kind of in a tough spot. "Don't" currently leads the pack, and could possibly debut as high as #30, but a debut around #40 is a more reasonable estimate. "The Man" and "Bloodstream" are going to have marginal debuts on the chart (if they even crack the top 50), and they'll likely wind up between #45-50.

With perhaps 6 tracks from last week's Hot 50 departing from the upcoming list, Ed Sheeran should scoop 3 new entries, while Katy B, Rixton and Secondcity will get one each. See the singles that will likely drop off the Hot 50 when the final tally is released:

- "Brooklyn Baby" by Lana Del Rey
- "Shades of Cool" by Lana Del Rey
- "Happy" by Pharrell Williams
- "Partition" by Beyoncé
- "Say Yes" by Destiny's Child
- "Drunk In Love (feat. Jay Z)" by Beyoncé

Top 5 Contenders
Things in the top 5 this week appear to be running on par with last week. Sanna Nielsen's "Undo" should take 1st place for a third consecutive week to tie Loreen's "Euphoria" for the longest #1 run of any track from any year of the Eurovision Song Contest (coincidentally, both women are from Sweden).

Kiesza's "Hideaway" should nail a 3rd straight week at number 2, for 9 consecutive weeks in the top 2 (the deep house anthem previously topped the CDS Music Chart Hot 50 for 6 consecutive frames from the start of May to mid June. Next week, it'll reach Gold certification status for 500+ points earned.

Maroon 5's brand new single "Maps" (which was last week's Hot Shot Debut) should bullet at number 3 for a second straight week, though its numbers should climb past 120 points.

Clean Bandit's "Rather Be (feat Jess Glynne)" should wind up in 4th place for the second straight week, which will raise its overall score to 785+. That puts it among the top 8 biggest scorers of the year so far, an impressive achievement for a track that's both still climbing and in its 20th week. Shakira's "Dare (La La La)" should round out the top 5 and hold the Voter's Choice #1 title for a second straight week.  

Report: Tracks From Ed Sheeran's Acclaimed "X" Album Ignite Top 50

Immediately after the release of Ed Sheeran's sophomore studio album, X, in Australia and New Zealand on June 20th, a slew of countdown singles began rapidly rising on the building chart for the chart dated June 26th. As the tracking week was already almost over by the time of the album's release in those markets, only a handful of them were actually able to chart (none made the official Hot
50).

Leading the pack was "Don't", which blasted in at #51 when the results for the chart (which tracked through the end of June 20th in America) dated June 26th came through this past weekend. "The Man", "Afire Love" and "Bloodstream" fell directly behind it, entering at #54, 57 and 60 respectively. The album's lead single, "Sing", would have likely finished within the top 60, but was barred from entering because it had already departed the Hot 50 before. Since positions #51-60 aren't awarded any points and they also don't appear on the finalized list, they're deemed the "Bubbling Under" positions of my chart. Previous Hot 50 entries can't reappear on the "Bubbling Under Chart", because they've already broken its boundary. In reality, Sheeran controlled 40% of this past week's "Bubbling Under Chart", claiming #1, 4, 7 and 10 (equivalent to #51, 54, 57 and 60 as mentioned before).

As we enter the midway stage of this week's building chart (that will be the issue dated July 3rd), "Don't" again leads the pack with a strong 28 points so far. It's headed for a final weekly total of approximately 65 plays, which should help it officially debut around #29. "The Man", "Afire Love" and "Bloodstream" are likely to clock in with 54, 52 and 49 points (respectively) by the end of the week. That should translate into noteworthy debuts at or around #36, 39 and 40 respectively.

Falling right behind is "Sing" (previously charted), which could re-enter as high as #45 (though its currently trending downwards as of the latest update.

"Thinking Out Loud", "Photograph", "One" and "I See Fire" are likely to clock in with 41, 39, 37 and 35 points respectively. That should translate to a #47 debut for "Thinking Out Loud" and a #50 opening for "Photograph". "One" and "I See Fire" will likely barely miss the Hot 50 this week (by one to two points overall), though "One" (which is trending upwards) might manage to wrangle into one of the final slots. If even 5 of these songs manage to debut, Ed Sheeran will become the artist with the most Hot 50 entries in a single week. That would be the cherry on top for the singer, who was recently "honored" with the most acclaimed album since the start of  the CDS Music Chart album reviews era. It (X) currently holds a 94/100 rating. Christina Perri's 2014 album, Head or Heart, was the previous record holder with a strong 92/100. Beyonce's 2013 self titled set is 3rd with a 91/100, while Lady Gaga's record churning ARTPOP ties for 4th with Robyn & Röyksopp's Do It Again (EP); they both scored a 90/100. Lana Del Rey's Ultraviolence ranks 6th with an 89/100.

See how each song stands through the end of Monday, and where the tracks should stand after 4 more days of tracking.

Song	Spins So Far	Projected Spins Through Week’s End	Spins Per Day Average	Estimated New Rank	Last Week	Position Change	Trend
Don’t	28	65	9	29	51*	+22	b
The Man	23	54	8	36	54*	+18	b
Afire Love	22	52	7	39	57*	+18	a
Bloodstream	21	49	7	40	60*	+20	a
Sing	19	44	6	45	-**	Re-Entry	c
Thinking Out Loud	17	41	6	47	-	Debut	b
Photograph	16	39	6	50	-	Debut	c
One	16	37	5	-	-	Debut	b
I See Fire	15	35	5	-	-	Debut	c

*Positions past #50 aren't official. In this case, these tracks made the Bubbling Under Chart (which is a ten position extender to the actual Hot 50).
**Barred from Bubbling Under Chart (though it ranked higher than some on this list) because it previously reached the Hot 50.

Come back for more posts!

Album Review: X by Ed Sheeran

1. "One"

Building on the sounds of his debut studio album (+), “One” tells the sweet melancholy story of a true love felt by Ed Sheeran and of course his lover. It’s a slow paced folk-pop infusion record that feels full of live yet incredibly delicate and sparse. I honestly think that every other singer wishes they could paint a story as vivid without trying hard – Ed Sheeran is one of the few that knows how to do time and time again.

2. "I'm A Mess"
Ed Sheeran goes for a much more acoustic approach, applying minimal effects to "I'm A Mess" (there's a guitar and a dash of a beat, but not much more). This stripped down track is even more bare boned than "One", which led the album off on a familiar note to satisfy his longtime fans (for those of you that recall +, the English singer's first album).

3. "Sing"

When “Sing” was first released as the album’s lead single, it sparked lots of complaints from the fans. Many claimed he was trying too hard to fit in with mainstream format, but if you listen closely to “Sing”, you’ll realize that Ed Sheeran isn’t trying to fit into a pattern, he’s trying to create his own. I mean honestly… when have you ever heard another innocent English singer/songwriter try his hand at a hip-hop inspired pop song. That’s what I thought… never.

4. "Don’t"

There’s no better way than this to get back at an ex-girlfriend who cheated on you: come up with a slick melody, make it catchy and of course, include all the juicy details. The concept of “Don’t” likely revolves around Ellie Goulding (who he briefly dated several years ago), but it feels like Ed had someone else on his mind when he came up with this one: Taylor Swift. T Swizzle (Ed Sheeran’s American best friend), who is notorious for not only being the only country artist with two albums that debuted with first weeks sales of 1,000,000+, is also well known for writing about all the people who “brake her heart”. I know it wasn’t his intention, but “Don’t” can’t help but feel like a punch in the face for Swift. Her best friend (who’s more junior when it comes to the music business) just created a single song that’s better than ½ of her break-up discography.

Lyrically, the song opens up about how this mysterious relationship started off slow but quickly took off until the couple was ordering pizza to-go, singing on Sheeran’s couch and spending a night in a hotel room. It also details how the relationship crumbled: she cheated on Ed with someone on the same floor of a hotel they were staying at. Ed sure knows how to keep it both sassy and classy.

5. "Nina"
Written with perhaps Nina Nesbitt in mind, Ed Sheeran goes all over the place about a love that ended just as soon as it began. It's both pop and hip-hop inspired (yet again), but takes a different approach on love. While "Don't" focused on cheating, "Nina" focuses more on not being able to connect with your lover. At one point, Ed even sings "You should go Nina/Cause I ain't never coming home Nina", a truly heart crushing line.

6. "Photograph"
When I first listened to this track, I got a really strong "Lego House" vibe (for those of you that don't know, that track featured on Sheeran's debut album; it's also my favorite track from that album). Unfortunately, "Photograph" still really doesn't compare to "Lego House" in terms of overall quality (and that's a bit of a shame). It is, however, nice to hear a piano for the first time on any part of this album.

7. "Bloodstream"

Let’s just start by saying this: it’s a disappointment. Why? Because it gets you all pumped up, but it turns out to be a dud. “Bloodstream” isn’t a bad song - in fact it’s one of the album’s better ventures – yet it feels over simplified. The verses and the pre-chorus make it feel exhilarating (by Ed Sheeran standards), but the chorus itself ruins the song. Ugh. It just bothers me for some strange reason. Ah…oh well.

But on a more positive note, "Bloodstream" does contain some of the most creative lyrics on X, and its overall structure trumps most of the albums other songs as well. A river of "mmmhhs" and a side of "ahhhs" wash over the base of the track in a melodic, end of the world fashion.

8. "Tenerife Sea"
The calming lullaby whooshes of "Tenerife Sea" are both soothing and heart melting. As the track progresses, it becomes perfectly clear: Sheeran is a master craftsman. As his voice weaves around a melodic guitar, the true essence of beauty and emotion are heard more clearly than ever before. It's not a game changer, or something you'll end up hearing on the radio, but "Tenerife Sea" will forever remain etched into the minds of listeners as a pure pop gem.

9. "Runaway"
Though this track didn't really strike well with me upon first listen, after several more plays, I began to enjoy it. With that being said, "Runaway" is still among one of the album's sinking points mainly because it feels a little lost in the sea of 'runaway' hit singles that surround this track (see "The Man", "Bloodstream", "Afire Love", etc.).

10. "The Man"

Built around a "boom-boom-clap" beat, "The Man" blends an very thick accented proper English free style rap with a clean cut chorus where we find Sheeran belting out: "I don't love you baby/I don't need you baby/I don't want to love you no, anymore. The track gives off a strong hip-hop vibe that appears to over power, but a closer listen reveals a meadow of folk-pop sounds echoing throughout.

The thing that really sets "The Man" apart from the rest of the pack, is its ability to feel both complex and twisted while remaining in seemingly safe territory for Sheeran (who's no beginner when it comes to the less is more concept). Additionally, it has a strong replay quality that'll help it find its way into the hearts of millions of fans around the world.

11. "Thinking Out Loud"

Just like Rixton's Jake Roche said on Twitter: "Just downloaded "Thinking Out Loud" by Ed Sheeran. I had a cry. A crouch down in the shower until the water runs cold kinda cry". There's simply no better way to put it, "Thinking Out Loud" really sounds like that. Drawing inspirations from a variety of male pop vocalists hand crafted for Adult Contemporary radio, the track is reminiscent of approximately 1/4 of Jason Mraz's discography (that's actually quite a bit). It is not a runaway success like "The Man" or "Don't", yet "Thinking Out Loud" still puts up a good fight.

12. "Afire Love"
Written with his late grandfather in mind, "Afire Love" is one of the most touching ballad styled tracks on the entire album. More importantly, it is one of Ed Sheeran's most prolific efforts from X, mainly because it stands out in the waves of hip-hop or folk-pop inspired tracks. Scratch the hip, the hop and the folk, because "Afire Love" is a pure pop gem with a solid chorus and monumental verses.  What's more touching than the song itself? It was lyrically completed at Ed's grandfather's funeral. Watch out for this one... it'll likely impact pop radio sooner rather than later.

Rating: 94/100 (A)
Certified Fresh

Overview: I definitely had a hard time giving this album a 94 (that's the highest I've given since I started doing reviews in November), but it feels right. Why? Because Ed Sheeran knows how to deliver something all audiences (not just average teenage girls) will remember and cherish for quite a while. Sheeran's debut studio effort, +, was set in a very subtle singer/songwriter fashion and was draped with dreary lyrics and snotty-Kleenex/bawl-your-eyes-out music (acoustic works, folk pop, and indie pop all in slow fashion). Follow up x is a huge departure from the Tumblr girl's favorite record sound of +. Incorporating more mature themes (songs written about actual relationships), new sounds (hip-hop flavored verses and pop radio styled hooks), and more people (notably Pharrell  Williams), is what really set x apart from +. I mean let's be honest: Ed Sheeran could have created a body of work worse than +, and it still would have sold millions. Luckily for him, x ventures to a mature enough mark to appeal to a broader spectrum of listeners, and it's also chalk full of interesting highlights.

From the tear welling "Afire Love" to the heart crushing "Don't", x has something for all kinds of lovers (and listeners).