Wednesday, October 23, 2013

Forecast: "Do What U Want (feat. R. Kelly)" Headed For #1 Debut

The new promotional 2nd single by Lady Gaga, "Do What U Want (feat. R. Kelly)" from the new album ARTPOP is headed for a major debut, based on data from its first  two complete days of spins. The song scored a fabulous 56 spins through day 1 which is up 13 from where "Applause" started. On day two, the song moved an additional 51 spins (-8.92%). While a drop didn't occur for "Applause" on day two, "Do What U Want (feat. R. Kelly)" has already reached 107 spins which is what "Applause" was able to rack up in 3 days. This should put the song in line for the highest debut in the history of the chart. There is almost no way that the song wouldn't set a record and there is no way that it couldn't be #1. The next candidate for #1 is "Applause" and that should only bring in about 80 spins this week. Unfortunately for "Do What U Want (feat. R. Kelly)", "Venus" by Lady Gaga is set to be released on Sunday October 27th, 2013. With an extra day in its first week, "Venus" has an advantage. This could ruin the chart run of "Do What U Want (feat. R. Kelly)" with more than a single week at #1 being unlikely. It will also likely decline by a large margin of about 40-60% in week 2. If this scenario does happen, "Do What U Want (feat. R. Kelly)" will likely claim a large load of records.

Predicted Records:
"Biggest #1 Opening"
"Biggest Airplay Total For A Song"
"Biggest 2nd Week Point Decline"
"Biggest Airplay Total For A Non-#1 Song"


Day
Spins
% Of Real Total (5 Day)
% Increase/Decrease
Total Spins (Thus Far)
1
56
52% (28%)
NEW
56
2
51
48% (25%)
-8.92%
107
PREDICTIONS FOR REST OF THE TRACKING PERIOD
3
36
(18%)
-29.41%
142
4
29
(14%)
-19.44%
171
5
31
(15%)
+6.89%
202

5 - DAY SPIN TOTAL ESTIMATE: 202

Also congrats to "Applause" for spending 10 straight frames atop the CDS Music Chart!

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