Lady Gaga & Tony Bennett Set to Score #1 Debut with "Cheek to Cheek"? Maybe Not

Industry forecasters are saying that steep competition from veteran country singer Kenny Chesney and popular new groups Alt-J and Pentatonix could potentially push Cheek to Cheek to #2 when the final United States numbers run in.

Overview

Tony Bennett and Lady Gaga are some of the most popular artists of all time, with combined worldwide album sales towering past 75 million. Combined, they've won over 500 awards and have been considered among the top 10 artists of all time in their respective categories and genres (female pop and male jazz). When you put two artists like that together, you'd expect album sale results to be through the roof. Unfortunately for the artists, a fair amount of their fans appear to have skipped over their new collaborative album, Cheek to Cheek; forecasters are expecting a start lower than 125,000 copies. That's way down from Tony's 2011 album Duets II (which started with 180,000) and Lady Gaga's 2013 ARTPOP (which began with 260,000). So what's causing the album to 'underperform'? A number of things.

United States Performance

One of the most noticeable issues with the album as a whole is that the entire tracklist is comprised of "jazz standards". That means that every track had already been recorded by another artist (or, in some cases, multiple) before being re-recorded for Cheek to Cheek. In fact, most of the songs have a histories that began all the way back in the late 1940s. While Tony and Lady Gaga have certainly brought a fresh new take to the well known jazz collection ("Anything Goes", "Lush Life", "I Can't Give You Anything But Love"), some fans simply aren't used to Gaga singing someone else's work.

Not only this, a substantial amount of added competition is causing Cheek to Cheek to crack under the pressure. First week forecasts have Kenny Chesney taking the crown with his new release The Big Revival by a mere 10,000 copy margin. While Cheek to Cheek (like most Tony Bennett releases) is trending upward after being on sale for at least a day (which could give it a late week upward push), it may not be enough to get to #1. However, let's not forget that Bennett albums typically stay solid in sales for several weeks after release, which could help the album stay strong against forthcoming competition. While Alt-J and Pentatonix don't seem to attract the same core audience as Tony and Gaga do, their new releases are likely to eat away at a small portion of Cheek to Cheek's expected sales.

It's almost guaranteed that the collaboration album will land at #2 behind The Big Revival in the United States, but on an international scale, Cheek to Cheek easily has the top spot locked up.

Worldwide Front

Remember that country veteran I was just talking about (Kenny Chesney)? Based on a worldwide viewpoint, his album is currently outside of the International iTunes Top 100 album list (The Big Revival is at #110 or so). Meanwhile, Cheek to Cheek is the most downloaded album in the world for a third straight day. It will easily debut at #1 in at least 12 countries and could become one of the biggest/most successful jazz releases in years.

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Hot 50 Forecast: Maroon 5 Set For Top Opening, Jessie J’s “Bang Bang”Starts Lukewarm

Now that approximately half the week is gone, it’s time to get down to this week’s forecast. Remember, the Hot 50 forecast is a representation of the first four days of tracking (Saturday-Tuesday) and is not reflective of the entire week.
 

Maroon 5’s just released single, “It Was Always You”, is currently in the lead among new entries this week, ranking among the top 20 this for the week to date (through Tuesday) despite just be released for the first time on Monday night. “It Was Always You” (which follows the group’s #1 peaking “Maps”) previews Maroon 5’s upcoming 5th studio album V. At this point, “It Was Always You” is set for a top 15 finish, which would be a modest start for the band (5 out of 8 of their previously charting hits have opened at #10 or higher). Heading into Wednesday, the track could enter the top 10. While we’re on the topic of Maroon 5, it’s worth pointing out that “Maps” (last week’s leader) is set to command the top of the list for a 5th consecutive week. If it does wind up on top this week, it’ll surpass 2012’s “Payphone (feat. Wiz Khalifa)” as the group’s longest running #1 to date. “Maps” will additionally become the second longest reigning song of 2014, behind Kiesza’s unstoppable “Hideaway”, which topped for 6 straight frames starting in early May.

On the other hand, Jessie J’s Collaboration with Ariana Grande and Nicki Minaj (“Bang Bang”) is off to an underwhelming start. With just a handful of first day spins, don’t expect this to amount to much in its first week. When the Social Songs 100 opens up for voting later today, I’m guessing that “Bang Bang” will ride into the top position, which would give it an additional 10 points right off the bat. Still, at this point it’s likely that “Bang Bang” (a track that is actually decently composed) nabs the second highest debut of the week.

The Tony Bennett and Lady Gaga collaboration (“Anything Goes”) could potentially become the third highest debut of the week, with somewhere between #35-45 being a reasonable guess. While that would be a record low start for Gaga (who has tallied 18 weeks at #1), any debut on the Hot 50 would mark a career high for Bennett, who hasn’t released many tracks since the 2012 inception of the CDS Music Chart.

Other tracks that could potentially make a splash include Train’s “Bulletproof Picasso” (from the forthcoming album of the same name), and Secondcity’s “What Can I Do (feat. Ali Love)”. Hillary Duff’s “Chasing the Sun” is currently on pace to fall just short of the official Hot 50.

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