Hot 50 Forecast: Bebe Rexha, Taylor Swift & Charli XCX Battle For Top Debut

With half the week already gone, it's time to take a moment to look at which stars are heating up the CDS Music Chart Hot 50 with brand new entries. I'll also cover some movers and shakers.

Biggest Debuts

Taylor Swift - "Shake It Off"
With the surprise announcement on Monday that "Shake It Off" would be the first single from Taylor Swift's upcoming 5th studio album (1989), the track quickly flew onto the building Hot 50 chart at #35. Just hours later (alongside the official iTunes release of the song), the track had already leaped 19 positions to #16 and looked to post the largest opening of any song this week. Further fueling its  fire was the Social Songs 100, where it quickly reached #2, behind only Bebe Rexha's latest release, "I Can't Stop Drinking About You". Thanks to a highly successful campaign among Taylor Swift fans online, "Shake It Off" eventually topped the Social Songs 100 around mid day Tuesday.

Thanks to the release of the track's video, the song received a one time bonus of 5 additional chart points, per the rules about songs with videos. Additionally, the track entered the Radio Songs chart at #38 on Monday night, quickly jumping to #9 on Tuesday. With a massive presence on all components, "Shake It Off" outpaced every other new track, and was just days away from claiming the biggest debut of the week.

However, that all changed come Wednesday afternoon. By 11 A.M. Wednesday, "Shake It Off" had dipped 16-24 on the Streaming Songs chart (the most critical of all component charts), and 9-16 on Radio Songs, though it firmly held the top spot on the Social Songs 100 ahead of "I Can't Stop Drinking About You" and previous chart topper "Bang Bang".

At this point, "Shake It Off" has lowered so much, that the other two new entries headed for Hot 50 debuts -- Bebe Rexha's "I Can't Stop Drinking About You" and Charli XCX's "Break The Rules" -- could actually debut above it. Keep reading to learn more.

Bebe Rexha - "I Can't Stop Drinking About You"
After the release of the track's music video last week, "I Can't Stop Drinking About You" began adding a small amount of points (thanks to a #45 debut on Streaming Songs), but ultimately fell short of the CDS Music Chart Hot 50 last week. However, the track's addition to the Social Songs 100 at the top of this week caused a massive frenzy online. Thanks to continuous votes, "I Can't Stop Drinking About You" instantly reached #1 on the Social Songs 100, and commanded said component list for about 1.5 days before dipping to the runner up position. A #25 rank on the Streaming Songs list by Monday night further pushed its cumulative points upward.

Unfortunately, "I Can't Stop Drinking About You" ultimately lost control of the summit on the Social Songs 100, and quickly fell victim to a massive downpour of negative votes thanks to unnecessary spam. With "I Can't Stop Drinking About You" being the prime beating bag for Nicki Minaj, Ariana Grande, Lady Gaga and Taylor Swift fans alike (because its the highest ranked competitor for those groups other then themselves), it's bound to drop even more by the end of the week. While I'm still expecting it to be in the top 10 on the Social Songs 100 when the final whistle blows, it's guaranteed to be on the fringe.

As for the Hot 50 itself, the track will debut, but how high has yet to be determined.

Charli XCX - "Break The Rules"
I've got to admit, Charli XCX has been a bit of a surpriser. She's landed 3 top 20 singles since her 2013 debut, including a #1 with Icona Pop ("I Love It") and her 'fancy' collaboration with Iggy Azalea and she is almost guaranteed to land a fourth...possibly this week.

Debuting at #11 on the Streaming Songs 100 and #5 on the Social Songs 100 upon release, "Break The Rules" quickly became one of the biggest openers on the respective charts. Unfortunately, its rank on the Social Songs 100 slowly deteriorated and its likely to drop out of the top 20 on that chart by the end of the week. That leaves only points earned on the Streaming Songs chart, but its high holding rank on that chart will likely translate to a decent debut. In fact, I'm expecting "Break The Rules" to claim the largest opening for a song this week.

Top Debuts (Estimates)
1. "Break The Rules" by Charli XCX
2. "Shake It Off" by Taylor Swift
3. "I Can't Stop Drinking About You" by Bebe Rexha

Biggest Climbers

Based on mid week numbers, Ella Henderson's "Glow" could rocket to the top 10 after a top 40 start last week, and Nicki Minaj's "Anaconda" (which dropped 29-40 last week) could reach the top 10 as well thanks to a massive rise on the Social Songs 100 (where it'll likely crown thanks to a continual rise), a debut on Radio Songs and a massive uptick on the Streaming Songs chart. Additionally, it'll receive a one time bonus of 5 additional chart points due to its video premiere (which of course broke the Vevo record).

Come back for the chart highlights and Hot 50 chart soon!

Hot 50 Forecast: Maroon 5 Set For Top Opening, Jessie J’s “Bang Bang”Starts Lukewarm

Now that approximately half the week is gone, it’s time to get down to this week’s forecast. Remember, the Hot 50 forecast is a representation of the first four days of tracking (Saturday-Tuesday) and is not reflective of the entire week.
 

Maroon 5’s just released single, “It Was Always You”, is currently in the lead among new entries this week, ranking among the top 20 this for the week to date (through Tuesday) despite just be released for the first time on Monday night. “It Was Always You” (which follows the group’s #1 peaking “Maps”) previews Maroon 5’s upcoming 5th studio album V. At this point, “It Was Always You” is set for a top 15 finish, which would be a modest start for the band (5 out of 8 of their previously charting hits have opened at #10 or higher). Heading into Wednesday, the track could enter the top 10. While we’re on the topic of Maroon 5, it’s worth pointing out that “Maps” (last week’s leader) is set to command the top of the list for a 5th consecutive week. If it does wind up on top this week, it’ll surpass 2012’s “Payphone (feat. Wiz Khalifa)” as the group’s longest running #1 to date. “Maps” will additionally become the second longest reigning song of 2014, behind Kiesza’s unstoppable “Hideaway”, which topped for 6 straight frames starting in early May.

On the other hand, Jessie J’s Collaboration with Ariana Grande and Nicki Minaj (“Bang Bang”) is off to an underwhelming start. With just a handful of first day spins, don’t expect this to amount to much in its first week. When the Social Songs 100 opens up for voting later today, I’m guessing that “Bang Bang” will ride into the top position, which would give it an additional 10 points right off the bat. Still, at this point it’s likely that “Bang Bang” (a track that is actually decently composed) nabs the second highest debut of the week.

The Tony Bennett and Lady Gaga collaboration (“Anything Goes”) could potentially become the third highest debut of the week, with somewhere between #35-45 being a reasonable guess. While that would be a record low start for Gaga (who has tallied 18 weeks at #1), any debut on the Hot 50 would mark a career high for Bennett, who hasn’t released many tracks since the 2012 inception of the CDS Music Chart.

Other tracks that could potentially make a splash include Train’s “Bulletproof Picasso” (from the forthcoming album of the same name), and Secondcity’s “What Can I Do (feat. Ali Love)”. Hillary Duff’s “Chasing the Sun” is currently on pace to fall just short of the official Hot 50.

Come back for more posts!

Social Songs 100 Forecast: The Script Leads

 

It's that time of week again! The mid week numbers are finally through, and there's some interesting chemistry going on. Here's my mid week analysis of tracks duking it out on the Social Songs 100. It's going to be one wild week, so remember to keep it here for more news, and don't forget to vote for your favorites of the week by clicking here! See the biggest climbers and highest entries through the mid week point just below.


First led by The Madden Brothers' "We Are Done", this week's Social Songs 100 opened with a faulting start. Last week's top 5 all plummeted downward, most of them landing below #20. Then, things started to get a bit more interesting. Though it had barely missed the top 10 on the Social Songs 100 in the previous frame, Usher's "She Came to Give It To You" quickly dethroned "We Are Done" to reign on the Social Songs 100. Approximately 20 hours later, The Script's "Superheroes" moved 2-1 thanks to a large drive in votes from the Twitter community. On Wednesday things were about even, with Mandy Rain's "Riot" (which ranked at #3 last week) and Sia's "Chandelier" (which held #3 last week) posting the biggest drop offs and R3HAB's collaboration with Nervo and Ayah Marar ("Ready For the Weekend") soaring to #11 just hours after being added. It wasn't until approximately 3 P.M. PST on Thursday afternoon that things got a major turn around.

The Script's "Superheroes" (which was about to drop to #2) posted a huge increase in overall points, bolstered by a massive Twitter frenzy that erupted at around 11 P.M. in Britain (where a majority of the votes came from). The frenzy spurred over 30 retweets and over 40 favorites. That translated into a positive score of 100 (105 up votes and 5 negative votes), the highest for a song to date in the 13 week history of the Social Songs 100. At this point, any given song would need 101 positive votes (and no negatives) to dethrone The Script's song. That is nearly impossible. The current runner up (Maroon 5's "Maps") has a positive score of 0 (19 up votes and 19 down votes), with only 4 songs having scores of 0 or higher this week.

Nick Jonas' "Chains" (which was a mid week debut) is off to an incredibly slow start, currently ranking at #50. It opened at #13 and dropped out of the top 10 as soon as its third vote was cast.

It's also worth noting that lots of European acts tallied large position strides following the outburst of "Superheroes" (a song by a European band). At press time, 7 songs are sung (or partly sung) by a European artist.

Here's the current top 10 and percent index (Red denotes a drop and green denotes increase).

1. "Superheroes" by The Script 1.000
2. "Maps" by Maroon 5 0.000
3. "Boom Clap" by Charli XCX 0.000
4. "I'm Not the Only One" by Sam Smith 0.000
5. "Sing" by Ed Sheeran -0.010
6. "Chandelier" by Sia 0.010 (Positive, so should be #2 but only 7 votes have been cast)
7. "Flashlight" by DJ Fresh and Ellie Goulding -0.010
8. "No Mediocre (feat. Iggy Azalea)" by T.I. -0.010
9. "Strange Enough" by VÉRITÉ -0.010
10. "Black Widow (feat. Rita Ora)" by Iggy Azalea -0.030

Songs Debuting On the Social Songs 100 Next Week
- "Anaconda" by Nicki Minaj
- "Fireball (feat. John Ryan)" by Pitbull
- "Chasing the Sun" by Hillary Duff
- "Bang Bang (feat. Nicki Minaj and Ariana Grande)" by Jessie J
- "Wait On Me" by Rixton
- "Ordinary Human" by OneRepublic
- "It Was Always You" by Maroon 5
and select others!

Come back on Friday for the highlights, on Sunday night for the full chart and early Monday morning to vote in week 14. More posts released randomly throughout.

Any questions? Tweet me here -------> Tweet to @cdschart

Social Songs 100 Forecast: Oliver Heldens x Becky Hill and DJ Fresh x Ellie Goulding Among Top Debuts

We've already covered the Hot 50 forecast, so it's time to look at which songs are burning up the Social Songs 100. It's going to be one wild week, so remember to keep it here for more news, and don't forget to vote for your favorites of the week by clicking here! See the biggest climbers and highest entries through the mid week point just below.

Hot 50 Forecast: Vita Chambers For Top 5, VÉRITÉ and DJ Fresh For Top Openings

With the week halfway over, and 3 days left to go, let's take a look at just how well (or poorly) tracks are doing relative to their position last week. Remember, nothing is confirmed just yet. All ranks will be finalized this weekend. Additionally, there has been some slight confusion: the chart dated July 17th was supposed to be uploaded at the end of last week, but with a newly updated format and a major reconstruction of the video component, things got a little hectic. All data below reflects songs impacting or moving on the chart dated July 24th (sorry for the confusion). Another post will reflect the first 3 days of the Social Songs 100 (previously titled the Voter's Top 100). Said post will arrive tomorrow, given that the Social Songs 100 only counts data Monday through Friday. Other than that, here we go!

Forecast: Usher Headed For Major Strides, Top 5 Remain Stable

New Entries & High Climbers
After adding two new entries last week (for a total of 4 since 2012), Usher's latest release, "She Came To Give It To You (feat. Nicki Minaj)" is set to be the top debut on this week's chart. Currently ranked at #14 on the building chart through this week's halfway mark, it's entirely possible that the track barely winds up within the top 20 when the week concludes, but an estimate around #25 to #30 would be a lot more reasonable. It's currently burning up in streaming and voting points, but US radio airplay has been nearly nonexistent at this point. Given that, I'm guessing only a handful of points will be derived from radio plays, which could cause it to open softer than expected. As I said earlier, a final week position between 25-30 would be a solid start and a win for Usher (who has had only one top 10 hit since 2012). It's guaranteed to be Nicki's 20th chart entry, further upping her lead as the artist with the most Hot 50 chart entries. Rihanna ranks in 2nd place with 18.

Usher's other tracks that will hold on the chart from last week (the Disclosure remix of "Good Kisser" and Chris Brown's "New Flame", which features Usher and Rick Ross) should also be able to muster up some decent business. "Good Kisser (Remix)", likely be the stronger of the two, ranks at #26 at the midweek stage. Despite a huge growth (it ranked at #46 when the final numbers came in last week), it has dropped off several positions from the start of the week (it at one point ranked at #20), so it's likely to drop more. It will likely wind up below "She Came To Give It To You (feat. Nicki Minaj)" this week, with a final rank between #35 to #40 being a good estimate.

Chris Brown's "New Flame" has had some trouble ranking up points this week (being snubbed by radio and other platforms), but could muster a several position increase at best. It's currently ranked at #40, but has held that position throughout the entire week so far. That leads me to believe it will hold strong through the week's end, with a final position just above or just below #40 likely.

T.I.'s "No Mediocre (feat. Iggy Azalea)" (which started off at a strong rank of #38 last week) is currently ranked at #11 through the midway stage, which is a huge lift of 27 positions. While it might wind up within the top 20, it's unlikely to reach the top 10... we'll see.

Tinashe's "2 On (feat. SchoolBoy Q)" is ranked at #21 at the midweek stage (it reached as high as #19  earlier this week), so I'm guessing it'll wind up with a 4 to 5 position gain from last week. More news soon.

Tracks Likely To Exit
- "Ultraviolence" by Lana Del Rey
- "Bloodstream" by Ed Sheeran

Top 5 Happenings
Maroon 5 is set to claim a second frame at #1, with Kiesza likely to reach the #2 for a fifth week with "Hideaway". That would put her in the top 2 for 11 weeks, the longest run in the region since OneRepublic's "Counting Stars" commanded the region for 13 straight weeks earlier this year. That song later went on to become the most successful single in my chart's history and is on its way to #1 for the end of 2014. Kiesza's other single ("Giant In My Heart") could snag the #3 position; Sanna Nielsen's former 3 week #1 "Undo" could ease 3-4 and Clean Bandit's "Rather Be" could drop 4-5 after peaking at #4 for 3 frames.

Come back for more news!

Forecast: Chris Brown, Usher, T.I. and More Headed For Hot 50 Debuts

New Entries & High Climbers
Following his performance of "Loyal (feat. Lil Wayne & Tyga)" at the 2014 BET Awards, Chris Brown dropped his latest single "New Flame (feat. Usher & Rick Ross)" on iTunes right afterwards. The track is actually pretty hot, delivering much more than expected. "New Flame" is expected to debut within the top 40, but just barely. Still, that would automatically place "New Flame" above "Loyal" (which spent just two weeks on the chart at lower positions). I'm expecting a #41 debut for the track.

Route 94's "My Love (feat. Jess Glynne)" (which ranked at #51 last week) should debut between positions 41 through 50. If it does debut at the end of this week, it'll mark Jess Glynne's second top 50 appearance, as well as Route 94's first week of charting (his first appearance).

Thanks to the recent release of a highly successful and accessible remix courtesy of Disclosure, Usher's "Good Kisser" should become the veteran singer's 3rd single to reach the chart. 2012's "Scream" previously reached as high as #3 and remained on the list for 15 weeks (back when the chart was only 40 positions long) and Looking 4 Myself album track "Euphoria" reached the edge of the chart (when it was only 40 positions long) near the end of 2012. The track should reach just right into the top 40. A #37 debut is a good estimate.

T.I.'s "No Mediocre (feat. Iggy Azalea)" should barely crack the list, with a #50 start possible. Disclosure's "F For You (feat. Mary J Blige)" is in a similar predicament this week with a start between 45 and 50 highly likely.

Finally, Tinashe's debut single "2 On (feat. SchoolBoy Q)" should arrive as the highest debut of the week. A start north of 40 is extremely likely. Usher's "Good Kisser" should be the next highest debut.

Tracks Likely To Exit
- "Team" by Lorde
- "Counting Stars" by OneRepublic
- "XO" by Beyoncé
- "Not A Bad Thing" by Justin Timberlake
- "The Man" by Ed Sheeran
- "Midnight" by Coldplay

Top 5 Happenings
Maroon 5's "Maps" should take either second or third place this week, with Kiesza's "Hideaway" should land in 1st place for a total of 7 non consecutive weeks at #1. Sanna Nielsen's "Undo" should wind up in second or third place, ending its 3 week run at #1. Kiesza's "Giant In My Heart" and Clean Bandit's "Rather Be (feat. Jess Glynne)" should fight for the final top 5 positions (4 and 5).

Come back for more!

Forecast: Katy B, Rixton and Secondcity Headed For Top Debuts

Recap
As the tracking week is now just a few hours away from closing, it appears that Ed Sheeran's tracks won't be attacking the Hot 50 this week. It was previous reported that up to 7 of the tracks from his just released X album could inflict damage onto the Hot 50. Of those 7 tracks, only three of those tracks ("Don't", "The Man" and "Bloodstream") have even a chance at debuting on the Hot 50 this week. That leaves tracks like "Afire Love", "Sing", "One", "Photograph", "Thinking Out Loud" and "I See Fire" out of Hot 50 spots. Not to worry, however. They still have a shot of cracking the list at a later time ("Afire Love" and "Thinking Out Loud" have the best chance).

So... what's changed?

A lot.

New Entries/Dropouts
After I published my article about the tracks from X, I received some recommendations for tracks by Katy B ("Crying For No Reason"), Secondcity ("I Wanna Feel"), and Rixton ("Me & My Broken Heart"). Two of these tracks (Secondcity and Rixton) were already contenders (Rixton's track had been under my radar for a few months, while Secondcity's track had emerged on my radar a few weeks ago) for the chart, while Katy B's song (which I had heard once or twice before) got a nice push from an amazing remix I found (and subsequently played the hell out of) that was created by an online remixer named Tom Damage.

Now, it looks like Katy B's track will have the highest debut this week, with a top 20 debut in reach. Secondcity's "I Wanna Feel" could clock in the top 25, while Rixton's "Me and My Broken Heart" should punch in with a more modest debut (35-45). They're guaranteed slots at this point.

On the other hand, Ed Sheeran's efforts are kind of in a tough spot. "Don't" currently leads the pack, and could possibly debut as high as #30, but a debut around #40 is a more reasonable estimate. "The Man" and "Bloodstream" are going to have marginal debuts on the chart (if they even crack the top 50), and they'll likely wind up between #45-50.

With perhaps 6 tracks from last week's Hot 50 departing from the upcoming list, Ed Sheeran should scoop 3 new entries, while Katy B, Rixton and Secondcity will get one each. See the singles that will likely drop off the Hot 50 when the final tally is released:

- "Brooklyn Baby" by Lana Del Rey
- "Shades of Cool" by Lana Del Rey
- "Happy" by Pharrell Williams
- "Partition" by Beyoncé
- "Say Yes" by Destiny's Child
- "Drunk In Love (feat. Jay Z)" by Beyoncé

Top 5 Contenders
Things in the top 5 this week appear to be running on par with last week. Sanna Nielsen's "Undo" should take 1st place for a third consecutive week to tie Loreen's "Euphoria" for the longest #1 run of any track from any year of the Eurovision Song Contest (coincidentally, both women are from Sweden).

Kiesza's "Hideaway" should nail a 3rd straight week at number 2, for 9 consecutive weeks in the top 2 (the deep house anthem previously topped the CDS Music Chart Hot 50 for 6 consecutive frames from the start of May to mid June. Next week, it'll reach Gold certification status for 500+ points earned.

Maroon 5's brand new single "Maps" (which was last week's Hot Shot Debut) should bullet at number 3 for a second straight week, though its numbers should climb past 120 points.

Clean Bandit's "Rather Be (feat Jess Glynne)" should wind up in 4th place for the second straight week, which will raise its overall score to 785+. That puts it among the top 8 biggest scorers of the year so far, an impressive achievement for a track that's both still climbing and in its 20th week. Shakira's "Dare (La La La)" should round out the top 5 and hold the Voter's Choice #1 title for a second straight week.  

Forecast: Maroon 5's "Maps" Likely to Miss #1 Debut

I know that "Maps" has yet to debut, but I've looked at some of the data from Maroon 5's previous debuts over again. I've infused these numbers with newer numbers provided by recent hits (particularly the scores of top 5 tracks within the last several weeks) to come up with what I believe to be a balanced estimation. Despite the fact that overall plays have jumped significantly from 2012, "Maps" will likely have a hard time debuting in line with the 116 play debut of "Payphone (feat. Wiz Khalifa)" mainly because of tough competition from both Sanna Nielsen's "Undo" (which registered 119 plays last week to rank at #1) and Kiesza's "Hideaway" (which, though slipping 1-2, scored over 100 plays last week). Furthermore, Kiesza's latest track, "Giant In My Heart" could be headed for a top 5 debut as well ("Hideaway" opened at #1). The fact that two tracks by large debuting artists are headed for massive openings will easily chip away at either one or both of the tracks' final scores.

Even if "Maps" opens in line with the 116 spin debut of "Payphone (feat. Wiz Khalifa)", that probably won't translate into a #1 debut. To guarantee the #1 slot in its debut frame, the track would need between 125 and 135 spins, a threshold that's only been broken 3 times (all by the same artist).

At this point, "Maps" could reach as high as #3 in its debut frame though even that might be a bit generous. It's likely that "Maps" winds up somewhere in the top 10 given that "Payphone", "One More Night" and "Love Somebody" all opened within the region. What's surprising is that all of Maroon 5's top 10 debuts (except for the top 10 ranking of "Moves Like Jagger" on the first ever chart in January 2012) have reached the top slot at some point or another, so "Maps" could still have a chance at #1 later on even if it debuts off of #1.

Forecast (Chart dated June 26th)
#1(=) "Undo" by Sanna Nielsen - 125 (+5.04%)
#2(=) "Hideaway" by Kiesza - 111 (+3.73%)
#3(NEW) "Giant In My Heart" by Kiesza - 108 (+3500%)
#4(NEW) "Maps" by Maroon 5 - 105 (NEW)
#5(-1) "Fancy (feat. Charli XCX)" by Iggy Azalea - 103 (+4.04%)

Bar For Success
Maroon 5's "Maps" really ought to open within the top 3, but any debut within the top 10 is a pass. Kiesza's "Giant In My Heart" is in fine shape if it reaches the top 20, in great shape if it debuts in the top 10. If "Undo" doesn't score a second week at #1, it's overall run might as well be dead already.