Hot 50 Forecast: Bebe Rexha, Taylor Swift & Charli XCX Battle For Top Debut

With half the week already gone, it's time to take a moment to look at which stars are heating up the CDS Music Chart Hot 50 with brand new entries. I'll also cover some movers and shakers.

Biggest Debuts

Taylor Swift - "Shake It Off"
With the surprise announcement on Monday that "Shake It Off" would be the first single from Taylor Swift's upcoming 5th studio album (1989), the track quickly flew onto the building Hot 50 chart at #35. Just hours later (alongside the official iTunes release of the song), the track had already leaped 19 positions to #16 and looked to post the largest opening of any song this week. Further fueling its  fire was the Social Songs 100, where it quickly reached #2, behind only Bebe Rexha's latest release, "I Can't Stop Drinking About You". Thanks to a highly successful campaign among Taylor Swift fans online, "Shake It Off" eventually topped the Social Songs 100 around mid day Tuesday.

Thanks to the release of the track's video, the song received a one time bonus of 5 additional chart points, per the rules about songs with videos. Additionally, the track entered the Radio Songs chart at #38 on Monday night, quickly jumping to #9 on Tuesday. With a massive presence on all components, "Shake It Off" outpaced every other new track, and was just days away from claiming the biggest debut of the week.

However, that all changed come Wednesday afternoon. By 11 A.M. Wednesday, "Shake It Off" had dipped 16-24 on the Streaming Songs chart (the most critical of all component charts), and 9-16 on Radio Songs, though it firmly held the top spot on the Social Songs 100 ahead of "I Can't Stop Drinking About You" and previous chart topper "Bang Bang".

At this point, "Shake It Off" has lowered so much, that the other two new entries headed for Hot 50 debuts -- Bebe Rexha's "I Can't Stop Drinking About You" and Charli XCX's "Break The Rules" -- could actually debut above it. Keep reading to learn more.

Bebe Rexha - "I Can't Stop Drinking About You"
After the release of the track's music video last week, "I Can't Stop Drinking About You" began adding a small amount of points (thanks to a #45 debut on Streaming Songs), but ultimately fell short of the CDS Music Chart Hot 50 last week. However, the track's addition to the Social Songs 100 at the top of this week caused a massive frenzy online. Thanks to continuous votes, "I Can't Stop Drinking About You" instantly reached #1 on the Social Songs 100, and commanded said component list for about 1.5 days before dipping to the runner up position. A #25 rank on the Streaming Songs list by Monday night further pushed its cumulative points upward.

Unfortunately, "I Can't Stop Drinking About You" ultimately lost control of the summit on the Social Songs 100, and quickly fell victim to a massive downpour of negative votes thanks to unnecessary spam. With "I Can't Stop Drinking About You" being the prime beating bag for Nicki Minaj, Ariana Grande, Lady Gaga and Taylor Swift fans alike (because its the highest ranked competitor for those groups other then themselves), it's bound to drop even more by the end of the week. While I'm still expecting it to be in the top 10 on the Social Songs 100 when the final whistle blows, it's guaranteed to be on the fringe.

As for the Hot 50 itself, the track will debut, but how high has yet to be determined.

Charli XCX - "Break The Rules"
I've got to admit, Charli XCX has been a bit of a surpriser. She's landed 3 top 20 singles since her 2013 debut, including a #1 with Icona Pop ("I Love It") and her 'fancy' collaboration with Iggy Azalea and she is almost guaranteed to land a fourth...possibly this week.

Debuting at #11 on the Streaming Songs 100 and #5 on the Social Songs 100 upon release, "Break The Rules" quickly became one of the biggest openers on the respective charts. Unfortunately, its rank on the Social Songs 100 slowly deteriorated and its likely to drop out of the top 20 on that chart by the end of the week. That leaves only points earned on the Streaming Songs chart, but its high holding rank on that chart will likely translate to a decent debut. In fact, I'm expecting "Break The Rules" to claim the largest opening for a song this week.

Top Debuts (Estimates)
1. "Break The Rules" by Charli XCX
2. "Shake It Off" by Taylor Swift
3. "I Can't Stop Drinking About You" by Bebe Rexha

Biggest Climbers

Based on mid week numbers, Ella Henderson's "Glow" could rocket to the top 10 after a top 40 start last week, and Nicki Minaj's "Anaconda" (which dropped 29-40 last week) could reach the top 10 as well thanks to a massive rise on the Social Songs 100 (where it'll likely crown thanks to a continual rise), a debut on Radio Songs and a massive uptick on the Streaming Songs chart. Additionally, it'll receive a one time bonus of 5 additional chart points due to its video premiere (which of course broke the Vevo record).

Come back for the chart highlights and Hot 50 chart soon!

Weekly Video Recap: Rita Ora & Iggy Azalea, Ariana Grande and More

Welcome to a brand new weekly segment called Weekly Video Recap. The whole point of the segment is pretty clear: recapping this week's top video premieres. So which new videos sizzled the internet this past week? Find out below!

Ella Henderson - "Glow"
While her previous release, "Ghost", got a good review from me, it wasn't until the release of "Glow" that I really became impressed. It's no instant hit like "Ghost", but it's powerful, filled with exquisite vocals and just absolutely breathtaking. While it definitely reminds me of Ellie Goulding's #8 peaking  "Burn", it feels a lot more original and a lot less overproduced -- which in this case, is a good thing.

With that being said, do I think "Glow" will become a top 10 hit on the CDS Music Chart Hot 50? Shockingly, yes. It'll be a tough accomplishment for a number of reasons (including lack of US Airplay and Ella's still underdeveloped fan base), but I could ultimately see it becoming an eventual hit and one of the this year's late bloomers.

The music video for the track, which dropped just a few days ago, is much like her previous video for "Ghost", but it feels more full of energy. Documenting the events of a group of friends that party all night, "Glow" embraces the feelings of togetherness and friendship. Just like the rising sun in the music video, Henderson is one of the brightest burning stars (in the music business)... hopefully she'll 'glow' for years to come.

Ariana Grande - "Break Free (feat. Zedd)" While the rest of Ariana Grande's music videos are far from perfect, the music video for "Break Free" borders on the edge of utter ridiculousness -- her worst video to date. The inspirations behind it -- original Star Trek episodes, space dominatrixes, Katy Perry's "E.T." video, Star Wars, etc. -- would normally all work together to create a strong final product, but the lack of originality and an interesting story line, combined with the fact that nearly everything in the entire video was developed on a green screen, make for a really uncomfortable and downright stupid video.
I understand that you can't actually shoot a project in space, but it feels like they spent too much time on Grande's appearance rather than the sets and plot itself. Okay, yes, she looks cute but then again when has she not?
Despite critical opinions popping up all across the internet, most of America has embraced the video for "Break Free" with open arms -- Ariantors have made sure of it. Once again, a terrible video will help propel a decent song to success. We needed another one of those.

Iggy Azalea - "Black Widow (feat. Rita Ora)" Long before the release of the official music video for "Black Widow", we already suspected a Kill Bill themed clip. What was really surprising was that the Quentin Tarantino inspired video featured Michael Madden and Paul Sorvino, who appeared in actual Tarantino films Kill Bill and Reservoir Dogs respectively.
The video, which was shot around Los Angeles, California is pretty straight forward and follows the basic plot of Kill Bill: a former female assassin that takes revenge on those who've deeply hurt her.  Read more about Kill Bill and its intense story line, read here (Note: highly recommended movie). While the story seems a little drastic in this situation, given that the whole revenge plot was formulated in Iggy Azalea's character's head after another character was rude to her at the diner she worked at.
Either way, it's still a decent attempt at recreating a small piece of one of the greatest movies of all time. As for the song itself, it's already making its way up the CDS Music Chart Hot 50, which of course indicates that I like it.

Bebe Rexha - "I Can't Stop Drinking About You" While you may have never heard of Bebe Rexha, you've definitely heard her both lyrically and vocally. That's right, Bebe Rexha was the original writer of Eminem's smash #1 single "The Monster (feat. Rihanna)", and she can also be heard on the dance hit "Take Me Home" by Cash Cash, which bubbled under the Hot 50 for several weeks. She was also a co-writer for "Glowing" by Nikki Williams, which peaked at #11 on the CDS Music Chart Hot 50.
Other than her writing one of the most successful songs in Eminem's career (both on the CDS Music Chart and around the world), what makes Bebe Rexha so interesting? Her diversity. As a singer and songwriter, she's gone from pure pop to electronic pop and has even been behind more urban offerings.
On her debut single (which has received rave reviews from critics), Rexha experiments by combining her experienced, soothing vocals with an heavy dose of electro beats and of course relatable lyrics.  As the song progresses it gets even better, transforming from a moderately paced pop song into a absolute club anthem, all the while keeping it classy. It's also extremely catchy, without overdoing it.
The music video sees the artist reliving the pain her cheating lover has caused her, all the while knowing she'll never stop loving him. Congratulations on creating a video that actually has something to do with the song (thank you! It makes the whole experience better). Few artists can.

Röyksopp & Robyn - "Monument" I honestly though that "Monument", a ten minute long hazy adventure, would never be chosen as the next single from the Do It Again. "Sayit" would have been my choice, but with that being said, "Monument" really is a great, under-appreciated track. See the video below and my original comments from the Do It Again EP review.
"This dark and scattered mix of cloudy and feverish vocals is a haunting track that clocks just past the 10 minute marker. The first solid minute feels like a whisk into a darkened space reminiscent of both heaven and hell. Robyn chimes in with chanting vocals for the next two minutes. Throughout this time, special effects layer over her vocals, and knives chop the whispering backbeats in uneven patterns. The vocals fade away until they are replaced with jazz instruments and sounds of drowning words. Robyn returns once more to mutter the chorus for several seconds. Sounds of drums and other related tribal instruments encompass the final 2-3 minutes of the track, until a fire extinguishes all sound in the final moments of the track. It's a melancholy affair that is both intriguing and spooky...
...Among the highlights (it's hard to pick when there's only 5) are "Monument" and "Do It Again"."

Vote for your favorite new music video below, share this with others and comeback next weekend for a new edition of Weekly Video Recap.
Coming next week: Taylor Swift's "Shake It Off", Nicki Minaj's "Anaconda" and more! Stay tuned.

Which New Video Is the Best?

"Black Widow (feat. Rita Ora)" by Iggy Azalea

"Break Free (feat. Zedd)" by Ariana Grande

"Glow" by Ella Henderson

"Monument" by Röyksopp & Robyn

"I Can't Stop Drinking About You" by Bebe Rexha

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