Lady Gaga & Tony Bennett Set to Score #1 Debut with "Cheek to Cheek"? Maybe Not

Industry forecasters are saying that steep competition from veteran country singer Kenny Chesney and popular new groups Alt-J and Pentatonix could potentially push Cheek to Cheek to #2 when the final United States numbers run in.

Overview

Tony Bennett and Lady Gaga are some of the most popular artists of all time, with combined worldwide album sales towering past 75 million. Combined, they've won over 500 awards and have been considered among the top 10 artists of all time in their respective categories and genres (female pop and male jazz). When you put two artists like that together, you'd expect album sale results to be through the roof. Unfortunately for the artists, a fair amount of their fans appear to have skipped over their new collaborative album, Cheek to Cheek; forecasters are expecting a start lower than 125,000 copies. That's way down from Tony's 2011 album Duets II (which started with 180,000) and Lady Gaga's 2013 ARTPOP (which began with 260,000). So what's causing the album to 'underperform'? A number of things.

United States Performance

One of the most noticeable issues with the album as a whole is that the entire tracklist is comprised of "jazz standards". That means that every track had already been recorded by another artist (or, in some cases, multiple) before being re-recorded for Cheek to Cheek. In fact, most of the songs have a histories that began all the way back in the late 1940s. While Tony and Lady Gaga have certainly brought a fresh new take to the well known jazz collection ("Anything Goes", "Lush Life", "I Can't Give You Anything But Love"), some fans simply aren't used to Gaga singing someone else's work.

Not only this, a substantial amount of added competition is causing Cheek to Cheek to crack under the pressure. First week forecasts have Kenny Chesney taking the crown with his new release The Big Revival by a mere 10,000 copy margin. While Cheek to Cheek (like most Tony Bennett releases) is trending upward after being on sale for at least a day (which could give it a late week upward push), it may not be enough to get to #1. However, let's not forget that Bennett albums typically stay solid in sales for several weeks after release, which could help the album stay strong against forthcoming competition. While Alt-J and Pentatonix don't seem to attract the same core audience as Tony and Gaga do, their new releases are likely to eat away at a small portion of Cheek to Cheek's expected sales.

It's almost guaranteed that the collaboration album will land at #2 behind The Big Revival in the United States, but on an international scale, Cheek to Cheek easily has the top spot locked up.

Worldwide Front

Remember that country veteran I was just talking about (Kenny Chesney)? Based on a worldwide viewpoint, his album is currently outside of the International iTunes Top 100 album list (The Big Revival is at #110 or so). Meanwhile, Cheek to Cheek is the most downloaded album in the world for a third straight day. It will easily debut at #1 in at least 12 countries and could become one of the biggest/most successful jazz releases in years.

Come back for more!

One Direction, Lorde, Fergie & More Return Next Tuesday, September 29th

It's going to be a tough frame for everybody next week, with "top selling singles" from Tove Lo, Jessie J, Meghan Trainor and Taylor Swift being joined by a slew of hotly anticipated singles from Fergie, One Direction, Lorde and more.

Note: This post is corollated directly with sales on iTunes and placement on the Billboard Hot 100. It doesn't reflect what will happen on the CDS Music Chart Hot 50 come the week of September 29th.

2014 hasn't been slow per say, with a handful of tracks clocking in massive opening and subsequent week totals (in terms of downloads on iTunes and other platforms in the United States), but aside from "Shake It Off", "Happy", "Dark Horse", "Problem", "Fancy", "Bang Bang", "Anaconda" and "All About That Bass" (and a handful of others), the year's sales has been severely dull. Only one single (Taylor Swift's "Shake It Off") has clocked in with an opening frame above 500,000, compared to several songs which had already done so by the same point in 2013. Songs are still selling in high volume, but they just don't stick as well (let me know when you find MAGIC!'s "Rude" on the iTunes top selling chart).

Thankfully, some of the biggest hit makers of the past decade are rejoining the competition with new releases rolling out this upcoming Tuesday (September 29th) to stir up the pot a bit. This slight overhaul in the market could potentially equate to a sharp rise in single sales. As to how long this could last, I honestly have no idea (mainly because songs this year have had sharp upward movements followed by sharp downward movements on iTunes; the Billboard Hot 100 has had longish running #1s this year, but that's thanks to Radio plays and online streams for the most part).

Anyway, let's take an in-depth look at what's bound to pan out next week.

One Direction
Among all major new releases, One Direction's "Steal My Girl", from their forthcoming new album FOUR, is extremely likely to launch with the highest sales. Based on previous lead single releases by the group in the United States, the single should open past 300,000 but no higher than 350,000. That could be just enough to lock up a top 5 debut on the United States Billboard Hot 100 and a #1 debut on the Digital Songs chart.

What separates One Direction from the rest of the crowd? Their massive track record thus far. As mentioned prior, the group has had smash singles every time they release something new, with every new single (released before an album) debuting with sales of 270,000+. This time around, pre-orders for their new annual November album began earlier than normal. FOUR was available for pre-order several weeks ago, prior to the release of a new single. That means that when "Steal My Girl" is released, all pre-orderers will instantly receive the track through an e-mail code (with each of these transactions counting as first week digital downloads if they are in fact redeemed by the user within the first week of release; in the case of One Direction, it's likely that fans will be waiting at their computers hours in advance just to prepared, so missing the deadline shouldn't be a big problem).

Additionally, a viral campaign that spurred 1.1 million free downloads of their single "Fireproof" in a single day, and a massive roll out for "Steal My Girl" (which surprisingly included one of the band members leaking 20 seconds of the track to generate some hype) are further signs that the band  the band's media team have taken lots of bold risks that could wind up becoming a positive for the group. The 20 second snip-it has been played 1.85 million times since launching a single day ago. Check it out below.

Still, if the song opens with just 330,000 copies sold, it could have a hand in turning the market around. As with their other singles, however, expect it to collapse heavily in week two before turning around in its subsequent weeks. Still betting on this to be the top song of the week next week, but further competition from artists such as Lorde and Fergie could cause it to suffer more than expected.

Lorde While its a safe bet that One Direction leads the forthcoming week by a significant margin, Lorde's just announced The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 1 theme, "Yellow Flicker Beat", could end up doing some strong business in the marketplace this Tuesday. While Lorde hasn't been popular for long (about 18 months or so), she's already scored two US Billboard Hot 100 hits, including the 9 week #1 single "Royals". That's a feat that One Direction has yet to reach (they've gone as high as #2), and something that they'll spend quite a while trying to reach.
While I am in no way implying that "Yellow Flicker Beat" will reach #1 on the Billboard Hot 100, it certainly has a shot at a top 10 finish on this upcoming week's Digital Songs list. I'm modestly expecting a debut of 75,000-105,000 copies sold (which would place it somewhere in the middle of the Digital Songs top 10). If it does in fact wind up in the range I predict, it'll translate into a solid win for musical division of The Hunger Games franchise, which hasn't been too strong in terms of single sales (album sales, however, fair much better). In fact, anything above 60,000 should be considered a win.
It's unclear exactly how this one is going to play out, as I can only compare it to handful of songs, but here's my breakdown: it's bound to sell better than Coldplay's "Atlas" (which led off the second movie's soundtrack approximately a year ago), but levels similar to Charli XCX's "Boom Clap" (from The Fault In Our Stars), which sold approximately 1 million in sales during its first two months, might be a bit too difficult to reach.
Either way, "Yellow Flicker Beat" could in fact become the biggest success of all new tracks on September 29th. Not in terms of sales, but in terms of growth from its predecessors ("Atlas", "Elastic Heart", "We Remain", etc.).
Fergie After a 3 year hiatus from music, Fergie returned with a single new track in 2013: "A Little Party Never Killed Nobody (feat. Q-Tip & GoonRock)". The single, which was specially made for the Great Gatsby soundtrack, did little to rejuvenate interest in the once immensely popular singer and ultimately failed to replicate her prior successes (which includes 6 #1 singles and a grand total of 14 top 10 singles as a solo artist and as a part of The Black Eyed Peas). Flash-forward 15 months later, and Fergie is preparing the release of another new single (this time one from her long delayed 2nd studio album) called "L.A. Love (La La)". I'll just come out and say this now, as to not offend anyone later on: I've never really been a big fan of Fergie (frankly I don't understand what people saw in songs like "London Bridges" and "Fergalicious"), so I believe that her new single (which has been partially played at various shows across the globe prior to release) is a bit weak.
With that being said, "L.A. Love (La La)" could easily become a major success in terms of sales both short-term and long-term. I'm going with a first week sales range anywhere between 80,000-200,000. It's just too hard to figure this stuff out when you're dealing with a once popular artist has been on hiatus for years and years. I'll give an update when the song's first day placement has been locked in. Personally, I'd skip "L.A. Love (La La)" and move right on to Gwen Stefani's "Baby Don't Lie", which will be released on October 6th. Fergie just feels like a rip-off of Gwen Stefani ("Hollaback Girl" vs. "London Bridges", "Luxurious" vs. "Glamorous"). Let me know what you think is going to happen with "L.A. Love (La La)" in week #1. Also, let me know if you think "Baby Don't Lie" will start off better or worse. 
Kendrick Lamar (Holdover From 9/23) Lamar is on a roll right now. After hitting it out of the park with his latest album (2012's good kid, m.A.A.d city), Kendrick is finally back with a brand new single. "i" is the lead single from his third studio album, due out later this year. As of the current standings, the track is trending toward a debut frame of 140,000 copies (United States downloads only), and while it has already been released, it could hold considerably well on next week's standings. "i" is already at #42 on the building Urban radio rankings, just hours after release, and critical (as well as fan) reception has been extremely favorable.
It should be able to hold well throughout its second week (which will begin on September 29th), and could potentially lower the sales of other previously discussed impacting entries. The track is currently at #4 on the Overall United States iTunes Top 200, where it has been steadily moving upward since its release. Stay tuned for more.

Who do you think will dominate the United States download charts starting on September 29th. Will the slew of new releases be enough to push the industry out of its undeniably bad slump? Let me know below.

Taylor Swift Debut's "Shake It Off": Review and Analysis

Note: I am not affiliated with Billboard in any way, though I'll occasionally make sales and chart placement predictions (you can find one for "Shake It Off" below). On the other hand, I create a personal chart based around my favorite tracks (the CDS Music Chart Hot 50, the focus of this blog). You can learn more about that by clicking here.

Overview

While Earl Sweatshirt might not be so into "Shake It Off", pretty much everyone else across the globe can't stop "shaking" to Taylor Swift's latest instant hit. With the announcement on August 18th that Swift would be dropping her 5th studio (and first completely POP) album, 1989, on October 27th, the singer's lead single "Shake It Off" was quickly uploaded to iTunes and Youtube. While it didn't instantly reach #1 on iTunes charts (mainly because most fans had a hard time locating it, and because iTunes temporarily stopped updating due to a massive wave of Swifties bombarding their servers), it eventually landed at the surface of the iTunes Top 200 in 12 countries before Monday was all said and done. By mid-morning Tuesday, the track was announced to be the most downloaded track of the day internationally and eventually wound up at #1 in 3 dozen countries (36 for those that aren't quite ready for school to re-start).

But let's back track a second... being #1 on any given country's iTunes Store doesn't necessarily mean that you have the #1 song in that country. In most countries (like the US for example), the most popular songs are determined by a precise formula that usually combines Streams, Radio Airplay, and Digital Sales. For example, Meghan Trainor's "All About That Bass" was the most downloaded track in the United States last week, but only ranked at #4 on the Billboard Hot 100 due to lagging airplay and streams. On my personal chart, dubbed the CDS Music Chart Hot 50, I use a similar method (combination of plays through my music library, fan voting through Ranker, and plays from whatever I hear on the radio). 

In most cases (on personal and official country wide charts), you'll need to have strong numbers stemming from all branches that make up the chart. That's easier said than done. However, there are two and only two ways to get around having proficient scores in every category. The first is to dominate 1 category in such a way that there's no way your competitors can even catch up, and the second is to do well on iTunes in countries that only counts digital sales (the United Kingdom).

So the fact that "Shake If Off" is the #1 track on iTunes in 36 countries doesn't mean it'll debut at #1 in 36 countries, just to clarify.

Sales & US Billboard Hot 100 Rank Prediction

Interestingly enough, Taylor Swift's popularity in the United States is catastrophic, which leads me to another interesting possibility. According to a variety of sources, the sales of "Shake If Off" in the US alone between 9 PM EST on Monday to 9 PM EST on Tuesday (almost its first 24 hour of release), are just over 105,000 copies. That doesn't sound like a lot, but that's only 1 day of sales. That's 4,382 sales per hour, 73 per minute, and 1.25 every second. If it continues to perform like this throughout the rest of the week it'll debut with sales that are through the roof -- literally.

Since "Shake It Off" will have almost 150 hours to rack up sales in its first week in the US (Billboard claims the clock restarts Sunday at Midnight), a simple mathematical equation gives us a first week sales estimate of 657,000 copies sold. While it's possible that the track does hold that well, it seems unlikely. However, its strong presence on pop and country radio charts after 1 day of release and the fact that Swift will perform at the MTV Video Music Awards gala on Sunday at 9 PM will likely give it somewhat of a boost. It also has its counterpart video receiving lots of media attention -- both good and bad --, which will ultimately help drive its sales forward. As a side note, its music video has been watched over 8.6 million times since release last night (remember, Youtube views in the US do count toward Hot 100 chart points), and while its unclear how many were in the US, that early total should help it do well on Billboard's Streaming Songs list.

At this point, I'm officially guessing that it'll tally at least 620,000 500,000 downloads by the end of the week, which would make it one of the all time biggest openers and the biggest opening week of 2014, beating out Ariana Grande's "Problem", which sold 438,000 copies in its first week.

Update #1: My initial prediction of 657,000 copies is about right. More forecasts are coming in between 625k to 665k.

Update #2: I have lowered my estimate to 500,000 due to a large dip in sales between Wednesday AM and PM.

Update #3: "Shake If Off" held well between Wednesday PM and Thursday AM, down by just 1.8%. 500k-525k still looking like the best guess.

That should mean that "Shake If Off" reaches #1... in its second week. You're probably wondering why it wouldn't debut at #1 in its first week on the Hot 100, but the answer really isn't that simple. For some reason, Billboard ends the digital sales frame on Sunday at 11:59 PM, but keeps the Radio tally open until Tuesday at 11:59 PM. Since "Shake It Off" debuted on a Monday, it has a chance to debut on the Billboard Hot 100 based on 1 day of airplay alone. That seems impossible, but it's not. Swift's own "We Are Never Ever Getting Back Together" debuted at #72 on the Hot 100 based on one day of airplay back in 2012 and then powered to #1 the following week thanks to sales being added to its equation. If you need me to elaborate on this more please let me know in the comments below or by contacting me on Twitter.

At this point, it's likely to debut low on the Hot 100 (between 80 and 100) and then leap to #1 or #2 in the following week. If it does debut on the Hot 100 based on one day of airplay, Billboard will announce it tomorrow morning around 11 AM PST. If it doesn't debut, it'll likely open at #1 next week. In that case, Billboard will reveal it on August 27th at 11 AM PST. 

To avoid further confusion, I will publish a separate post about how "Shake It Off" will debut on the CDS Music Chart Hot 50 sometime either tonight or tomorrow morning.

Review

As for the song itself, "Shake It Off" is actually pretty damn catchy. While I wasn't really a fan of Taylor's country music, this new sugary pop vibe (which started with "I Knew You Were Trouble.") has actually been a winning equation in my book. As a note, my favorite Taylor song of all time is in fact "I Knew You Were Trouble.", my favorite country song is either "Red" or "Back to December", and I believe "We Are Never Ever Getting Back Together" is her worst effort to date. She's notched two entries, both pop hits, on the CDS Music Chart Hot 50: "22" (which ironically peaked at #22) and "I Knew You Were Trouble.", which became one of my favorite songs of 2013. It peaked at #4.

Still, "Shake It Off" can't help but feel like a little bit of a sell out for Taylor, a goodbye to the past 8 years of her career as a predominately country artist. Though the track is french horn tipped, repetitive and full of stomp! clap! sounds (all of which are normally associated with the 1980s), it's really not anything like 80s music.

However, in the end, "Shake It Off" ends up feeling like a distinct win for Swift, who's been cranking out chart hits for 5 solid years.

Rating: 8.25/10