It's going to be a tough frame for everybody next week, with "top selling singles" from Tove Lo, Jessie J, Meghan Trainor and Taylor Swift being joined by a slew of hotly anticipated singles from Fergie, One Direction, Lorde and more.
Note: This post is corollated directly with sales on iTunes and placement on the Billboard Hot 100. It doesn't reflect what will happen on the CDS Music Chart Hot 50 come the week of September 29th.
2014 hasn't been slow per say, with a handful of tracks clocking in massive opening and subsequent week totals (in terms of downloads on iTunes and other platforms in the United States), but aside from "Shake It Off", "Happy", "Dark Horse", "Problem", "Fancy", "Bang Bang", "Anaconda" and "All About That Bass" (and a handful of others), the year's sales has been severely dull. Only one single (Taylor Swift's "Shake It Off") has clocked in with an opening frame above 500,000, compared to several songs which had already done so by the same point in 2013. Songs are still selling in high volume, but they just don't stick as well (let me know when you find MAGIC!'s "Rude" on the iTunes top selling chart).
Thankfully, some of the biggest hit makers of the past decade are rejoining the competition with new releases rolling out this upcoming Tuesday (September 29th) to stir up the pot a bit. This slight overhaul in the market could potentially equate to a sharp rise in single sales. As to how long this could last, I honestly have no idea (mainly because songs this year have had sharp upward movements followed by sharp downward movements on iTunes; the Billboard Hot 100 has had longish running #1s this year, but that's thanks to Radio plays and online streams for the most part).
Anyway, let's take an in-depth look at what's bound to pan out next week.
One Direction
Among all major new releases, One Direction's "Steal My Girl", from their forthcoming new album
FOUR, is extremely likely to launch with the highest sales. Based on previous lead single releases by the group in the United States, the single should open past 300,000 but no higher than 350,000. That could be just enough to lock up a top 5 debut on the United States Billboard Hot 100 and a #1 debut on the Digital Songs chart.
What separates One Direction from the rest of the crowd? Their massive track record thus far. As mentioned prior, the group has had smash singles every time they release something new, with every new single (released before an album) debuting with sales of 270,000+. This time around, pre-orders for their new annual November album began earlier than normal.
FOUR was available for pre-order several weeks ago, prior to the release of a new single. That means that when "Steal My Girl" is released, all pre-orderers will instantly receive the track through an e-mail code (with each of these transactions counting as first week digital downloads if they are in fact redeemed by the user within the first week of release; in the case of One Direction, it's likely that fans will be waiting at their computers hours in advance just to prepared, so missing the deadline shouldn't be a big problem).
Additionally, a viral campaign that
spurred 1.1 million free downloads of their single "Fireproof" in a single day, and a massive roll out for "Steal My Girl" (which surprisingly included one of the band members leaking 20 seconds of the track to generate some hype) are further signs that
the band the band's media team have taken lots of bold risks that could wind up becoming a positive for the group. The 20 second snip-it has been played 1.85 million times since launching a single day ago. Check it out below.
Still, if the song opens with just 330,000 copies sold, it could have a hand in turning the market around. As with their other singles, however, expect it to collapse heavily in week two before turning around in its subsequent weeks. Still betting on this to be the top song of the week next week, but further competition from artists such as Lorde and Fergie could cause it to suffer more than expected.
Lorde
While its a safe bet that One Direction leads the forthcoming week by a significant margin, Lorde's just announced The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 1 theme, "Yellow Flicker Beat", could end up doing some strong business in the marketplace this Tuesday. While Lorde hasn't been popular for long (about 18 months or so), she's already scored two US Billboard Hot 100 hits, including the 9 week #1 single "Royals". That's a feat that One Direction has yet to reach (they've gone as high as #2), and something that they'll spend quite a while trying to reach.
While I am in no way implying that "Yellow Flicker Beat" will reach #1 on the Billboard Hot 100, it certainly has a shot at a top 10 finish on this upcoming week's Digital Songs list. I'm modestly expecting a debut of 75,000-105,000 copies sold (which would place it somewhere in the middle of the Digital Songs top 10). If it does in fact wind up in the range I predict, it'll translate into a solid win for musical division of The Hunger Games franchise, which hasn't been too strong in terms of single sales (album sales, however, fair much better). In fact, anything above 60,000 should be considered a win.
It's unclear exactly how this one is going to play out, as I can only compare it to handful of songs, but here's my breakdown: it's bound to sell better than Coldplay's "Atlas" (which led off the second movie's soundtrack approximately a year ago), but levels similar to Charli XCX's "Boom Clap" (from The Fault In Our Stars), which sold approximately 1 million in sales during its first two months, might be a bit too difficult to reach.
Either way, "Yellow Flicker Beat" could in fact become the biggest success of all new tracks on September 29th. Not in terms of sales, but in terms of growth from its predecessors ("Atlas", "Elastic Heart", "We Remain", etc.).
Fergie
After a 3 year hiatus from music, Fergie returned with a single new track in 2013: "A Little Party Never Killed Nobody (feat. Q-Tip & GoonRock)". The single, which was specially made for the Great Gatsby soundtrack, did little to rejuvenate interest in the once immensely popular singer and ultimately failed to replicate her prior successes (which includes 6 #1 singles and a grand total of 14 top 10 singles as a solo artist and as a part of The Black Eyed Peas).
Flash-forward 15 months later, and Fergie is preparing the release of another new single (this time one from her long delayed 2nd studio album) called "L.A. Love (La La)". I'll just come out and say this now, as to not offend anyone later on: I've never really been a big fan of Fergie (frankly I don't understand what people saw in songs like "London Bridges" and "Fergalicious"), so I believe that her new single (which has been partially played at various shows across the globe prior to release) is a bit weak.
With that being said, "L.A. Love (La La)" could easily become a major success in terms of sales both short-term and long-term. I'm going with a first week sales range anywhere between 80,000-200,000. It's just too hard to figure this stuff out when you're dealing with a once popular artist has been on hiatus for years and years. I'll give an update when the song's first day placement has been locked in. Personally, I'd skip "L.A. Love (La La)" and move right on to Gwen Stefani's "Baby Don't Lie", which will be released on October 6th. Fergie just feels like a rip-off of Gwen Stefani ("Hollaback Girl" vs. "London Bridges", "Luxurious" vs. "Glamorous"). Let me know what you think is going to happen with "L.A. Love (La La)" in week #1. Also, let me know if you think "Baby Don't Lie" will start off better or worse.
Kendrick Lamar (Holdover From 9/23)
Lamar is on a roll right now. After hitting it out of the park with his latest album (2012's good kid, m.A.A.d city), Kendrick is finally back with a brand new single. "i" is the lead single from his third studio album, due out later this year. As of the current standings, the track is trending toward a debut frame of 140,000 copies (United States downloads only), and while it has already been released, it could hold considerably well on next week's standings. "i" is already at #42 on the building Urban radio rankings, just hours after release, and critical (as well as fan) reception has been extremely favorable.
It should be able to hold well throughout its second week (which will begin on September 29th), and could potentially lower the sales of other previously discussed impacting entries. The track is currently at #4 on the Overall United States iTunes Top 200, where it has been steadily moving upward since its release. Stay tuned for more.
Who do you think will dominate the United States download charts starting on September 29th. Will the slew of new releases be enough to push the industry out of its undeniably bad slump? Let me know below.
