Saturday, November 16, 2013

Chart Highlights: Grid Lock in the Top 10

Lady Gaga rebounds 2-1 with "Do What U Want (feat. R. Kelly)" despite another drop. It tallies 109 spins this week (-13.5%). That is exactly the total I saw with "Applause" in week 2. It should show another drop next week of about 10-15%. That could mean that it will lose #1 to "Applause" next week. It's drops have been pretty close to the predictions every time. Despite this, it is hard to tell whether or not it will hold at #1 next week.

Lady Gaga tallies a second song in the top 10 this week as "Applause" moves 3-2. It previously ruled for 10 straight weeks before being knocked out by "Do What U Want (feat. R. Kelly)". It rises to 95 plays (+5.5%). After a tight race, it beats out last week's #1 "Venus" by just 3 points. "Applause" is headed for a fantastic total of over 1300 overall chart points. It bumps to the 650 point barrier and will easily nab about 700 by next week.

Lady Gaga slides 1-3 with "Venus" in week #3. After a single week atop the list, it logs a hefty decline (-31.85%) dropping from 135 to 92 spins. Although it didn't spend more than 1 week in the penthouse position, it did set multiple records including "Biggest Chart Move, "Biggest Jump to #1" (up 41 positions), and "Biggest Non-Opening Week Spins" beating "Applause" (106) and "Do What U Want (feat. R. Kelly)" (126). It will likely slide another 10% next week, meaning it will likely fall to #4 or #5 next week. A turn around of any sort is highly unlikely.

"What If?" by Vita Chambers holds 4-4 with 85 spins this week. To date it has spent 3 weeks in the top 5 and 4 weeks in the top 10. It is being dwarfed by many other songs currently, and its overall chart prospects are very up in the air as of now. If it continues to dip, it won't have a successful run, but if it stays within the top 10 for a few more weeks, it could bank a strong total upwards of 700 points.

"Mary Jane Holland" by Lady Gaga blast onto the chart at #5 to become ARTPOP's 6th straight top 10 single after "Applause", "Do What U Want (feat. R. Kelly)", and "Venus" hit #1, "Sexxx Dreams" hit #8 and "Aura" peaked at #10. It opens to 82 spins, off 9 from my prediction. It will likely hold reasonably well in week 2 based on its first week opening. It is this week's Hot Shot Debut.

Last week's Hot Shot Debut, "The Monster (feat. Rihanna)" by Eminem, bounds 8-6 with a total of 80 spins (a new high). It could eventually reach the top of the chart based on its rapid growth, though a few more weeks of data might help determine what will really happen with it. Will it be swallowed by Lady Gaga? Or will it go on to become a 'monster' success?

Lady Gaga lands a second new song in the top 10 as "MANiCURE" opens at #7 with a strong 78 spins. It is the 7th single by the artist to reach the top 10 (and 7th from her upcoming album ARTPOP). It follows "Mary Jane Holland", and is the second biggest opener of the week. This week marks the first week in history that any artist has scored more than 3 songs in the top 5 and the top 10. This last happened in September 2012 (over a year ago) when Maroon 5 (#2, #3, #5) and P!nk both placed 3 songs in the top 10 (#8, #9, #10). Lady Gaga also sets the record for most songs on the chart at once with 10 (Nicki Minaj had as many as 7) as "Donatella" opens at #13, "G.U.Y." opens at #15 and "Gypsy" opens at #23.

Avril Lavigne slides 5-8 with five time runner up song "Rock N Roll". It manages to score 74 spins (-11). It's #2 streak has been briefly interrupted by Zedd's "Clarity (feat. Foxes)", Vita Chambers' "Masquerade", Lady Gaga's "Applause", Lady Gaga's "Do What U Want (feat. R. Kelly)" and Katy Perry's "Walking On Air" for 1 week each though it probably won't return to #2. The song's overall outcome is looking fairly good. To date it has banked 750 points and has held very well. It should go on to match it predecessor's 968 point sum. If it continues holding, it could also be on target for a top 10 of 2013 finish. If it ranks higher than position #9 for every week through the year's end, it could bank 1000 points (give or take a few points).

"Masquerade" by Vita Chambers slides 6-9 this week with the bump of ARTPOP songs on the chart. It has yet another fantastic week and is holding very well. It will likely have a final score upwards of 800.

Eminem slides 9-10 with "Berzerk". It previously hit a high of 9 and peaked there for 2 straight weeks. It banks another 70 spins this week. With it remaining in the top 10, this becomes the second week that 3 artists have had at least 2 songs in the top 10. Last week 7 songs were split between Lady Gaga (3), Eminem and Vita Chambers (2 each). This week the total bumps to 9 (an average of 3 each) with Lady Gaga banking 5, and Eminem and Vita Chambers banking 2 each yet agin.

Come back for the chart!

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